Déjà vu all over again

The last time a trio of stars got together on one team was when Lebron took his talents to South Beach to play with D Wade and Chris Bosh. Expectations were high, to say the least. With three players that good, who the hell cared who played point guard and center? The Heat were going to surpass the 72-win record and win multiple championships from day one. Then the season began and everyone’s expectations came back down to earth as we realized that teams need to develop chemistry and learn to play with one another before seeing their win total increase. Jeff Van Gundy famously was quoted as saying the Heat would never lose two games in a row, never lose at home, and would win more than 72 games. After finishing the first month of the season with a Win/Loss record of 9/8 I think he had different thoughts.

You see it takes time for stars to learn how to play with one another and adapt their game to each other in the regular season. In the Olympics and All-Star games (the two types of games that reporters said Wade, James, and Bosh played in that showed they could play together), the players willfully (for the most part) adapt their games because they are either playing for something bigger than themselves (their Country) or are playing in an exhibition that has no bearing on their status (player don’t necessarily even want to play in all-star games; see Karl Malone). But the regular season is different; every missed or made shot, assist or turnover, and every minute played can cost players money. Players’ prime earning years don’t last long, and with the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement, who knows how they will be paid in the future. Also in the season, players worry more about winning and their legacy than they do in all-star games and international competition. Winning is important, but you can’t tell me Lebron, Carmelo, and Wade are losing sleep over the fact that they won a bronze medal in the 2004 winter games or that the East lost the 2009 all-star game by 27 points. They care, but really they really are just trying to play well and not get hurt. The fact that we thought just because Miami’s trio thrived in international play and all-star games meant that they would seamlessly learn how to thrive during the regular season was, in hindsight, foolish (at the time it felt justified!).

During that first month of the season, while the Heat were fighting to stay at .500, reporters, pundits and experts piled on the Heat letting us know how hard it is to build chemistry with new star players. They let us know of the growing pains, especially when the stars styles of play aren’t as complimentary as the Lakers and Celtics’ big stars have been. Some said the Heat had been overrated, but many, like ESPN’s John Hollinger, continued to urge fans to be patient; the Heat still showed signs of being a top team. Just like that, the Heat went on a 12-game winning streak and is currently sitting on the top of their division and second in the Eastern Conference at 21-9 through two months. The Heat-Haters have calmed down in their criticism of the team’s play and many see them as a contender, although most still think when healthy the Lakers and Celtics would beat them in a series. Nonetheless, everyone, myself included, had too high of expectations and also had too harsh of criticism for this team’s playing ability. We simply underestimated the importance and speed of developing chemistry and figuring out how to mesh stars together effectively.

Then, the Orlando Magic made two blockbuster trades that shook up their starting lineup and gave them their own version of a star-studded lineup. If Miami is a group of three superstars, Orlando has a group of 4 quasi-stars. Dwight Howard and Gilbert Arenas are or were at one point bona fide stars in this league. Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson are players who statistically look like stars and have routinely been considered for all-star games in the past. Orlando’s four lacks the star power that Boston, LA and Miami’s core groups have, but they are obviously one of the most talented rosters in the league, on paper. Arenas is a 3-time all-star, most improved player (02-03), 3-time all-NBA teamer, and finished top-five in scoring average for three seasons. Howard is the best big man in the game. Richardson and Nelson round out the foursome strongly.

When these trades went down, many thought that the Magic would do better than they had been by replacing Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, and Mickael Pietrus with Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu especially was expected to rediscover the skills he lost when he left Orlando after their Finals appearance. So far, post-trade results have been lacking. The Magic are 0-2 losing to the Mavericks (a team that may be playing the best of any in the league right now) and indefensibly losing by 10 to the Atlanta Hawks (a team who the Magic dominated during the playoffs last season). Keep in mind all of the lessons we learned with Miami. Chemistry takes time to develop; it’s not just the top names on your team that matter; players who are used to playing with the ball take time to adjust their games. I was expecting the media and “experts” to show a little more patience this time. I was mistaken. Again we are hearing that the Magic are no longer a contender, and that by trading half of their starting lineup, they ruined chemistry and messed with a contender midseason. That may be true, but I doubt it.

First off, look at the players the Magic acquired from the Suns: Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson. Think of the difference in playing styles they are experiencing. In Phoenix, Richardson averaged 17.6 shots per 36 minutes and registered a Usage% of 25.3 (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.) In his two games in Orlando, Richardson is averaging 10.8 shots per 36 minutes and a Usage% of 14.6 (-6.8 shots per game and -10.7% in plays used per game). That is a big difference in playing style. Turkoglu’s difference is less pronounced probably because he played less in Phoenix, and when in the game, he was used very similarly as he is in Orlando. If we look at stats Per 36 minutes, Turkoglu is averaging 3.7 shots per game less and a 2.2% decrease in Usage% in Orlando. The other adjustment these two Suns players have to make is going from playing with a legendary point guard and no big men in Phoenix to playing with an average point guard and elite center that the offense revolves around in Orlando. They also have to adjust from playing in the 6th fastest offense in the league according to its Pace Rating to the 19th fastest offense in the league in Orlando.

Arenas is also making a pretty big adjustment. Through two games, Gilbert is playing 12.6 minutes less per game, averaging 2.5 shots less per 36 minutes, and a decrease in Usage% from 26.3 to 25.1 (less drastic due to the fact that he serves as the instant offense when in the game in Orlando and is expected to “use” plays when in the game as he is the point guard and focal point of the bench unit.) Arenas is also going from playing with Andray Blatche and Javale McGee as his starting frontcourt.

For these reasons, it is important to give the Magic some time to gel before writing them off. Especially because any team that has Dwight Howard in the middle will be a contender. Howard has a Usage% of 28.9% this season (9th in the league). This number will not change drastically even with the new toys the Magic acquired. The rest of the team will have to adjust to the fact that they will no longer be the focal point of the offense. It all starts with the best center in the game, the guards will get their shots, but they may inconsistently get them. They have to realize that, and work on becoming more efficient with less touches and shots. Efficiency is something the new acquisitions have struggled with so far as they are learning when to shoot and are most likely nervous about messing up what Stan Van Gundy and the Magic have established so far. Arenas is shooting 17.6%, Richardson is shooting 33.3%, and Turkoglu is shooting 20% so far for the Magic. I highly doubt these three will continue to struggle so mightily. So let’s remember what happened with the Heat (who I think had to adjust less than Orlando as Wade, Lebron, and Bosh play with much inferior supporting cast than the Magic and thus haven’t had to sacrifice as much), and give Orlando some time before we send them to the Lottery. In the end, they should be on the short list of title contenders this season and beyond. At the very least, they have more of a shot now than they did with Vince and Rashard limping up and down the court.

LeeBron?

I woke up this morning, went through my morning routine, and boarded the train to begin my hour-long exodus to Vanguard. The conductor, Rick, likes to give me a hard time and enjoys the fact that I’m going to a sports business program. He thinks I’m going to be the next Drew Rosenhaus. So when Rick came to check my ticket, he asked me, “So did you help make that Cliff Lee deal?” I gave the obligatory chuckle and nod and said “No Rick not yet, how much did the Yankees get him for? I didn’t see the news.” Rick retorted that the Yankees didn’t pull it off; the Phillies signed their prodigal son to a five-year/120 million -dollar contract. I was shocked, I wouldn’t say I’m a huge baseball fan, but I do keep tabs on the big stories, and I knew that the Cliff Lee sweepstakes were coming down to the Evil Empire (Yankees) and the small market dreamers with the Hall of Fame owner (Rangers). The media (ESPN) had painted Lee out to be somewhat of a money-hungry ace that wanted to be paid like other top pitchers (Sabbathia) and would go where the money was not necessarily the best team or chance for him to be happy. The Phillies weren’t even on the radar.

My initial reaction was that I need to bolt my doors and quit my job before playoff time and the inevitable parade down Broad Street and craziness that ensues. This team is no doubt going to win at least one more world series and has the best 4-man rotation I have seen in my 24 years on this earth. Two Cy Young winners, one WS MVP, and another perennial All-Star workhorse pitcher. Combine that an above average offensive team, and you will have a team that should be a lock to be playing in October. You also have the National League’s version of the Yankees and a new power player in a league that has been dominated by the Sox and Yanks free spending ways for years. Even as an anti-Philadelphia fan, I was still excited to see this team and I actually am looking forward to what is usually my least favorite time of the sports year, the marathon that is the MLB regular season. What records could be broken? Will Hamels and Oswalt ever lose a game going against other teams 3rd and 4th pitchers? How many Mets fans will meet their demise at their matchups at Citizens Bank Park?

I pulled up ESPN.com on my phone and read the Jayson Stark articles and tapped my ESPN Radio App on my iPhone to hear Mike and Mike’s reactions. My wheels started turning. I started to question what I was hearing, and drawing parallels to my favorite sport and player: the NBA and Lebron James. Didn’t Cliff Lee do what Lebron did when he decided to take his talents to South Beach? It’s eerily similar; minus the hour-long studio show and public humiliation of a fan base (also minus the millions of dollars raised for the Boys and Girls Club which we so often forget). Before we compare, let me just say this comparison excludes "The Decision," we can all agree that was narcissism and bravado at its worst. But excluding the show and the pep rally, the two are comparable. Let’s compare:

1) Cliff Lee chose to play for a dark horse team (Philly) instead of the options that ESPN decided were most likely and realistic (Yankees, Rangers, and Nationals). Lebron did the exact same thing choosing the relative dark horse Miami over the ESPN favorites Chicago, New York, Cleveland and even New Jersey.

2) Lee took less money to play for a team and a city that he felt comfortable with and that in his belief was the best chance for multiple championships. Lee’s deal reportedly can max out (depending on incentives and an optional 6th year) at anywhere from 120 million to 147.5 million dollars. The Yankees offered him a guaranteed 6-year deal with an optional 7th year that would max out at $148 million dollars. Lee could end up losing as much as 28 million dollars depending on if he meets the incentives for the 6th year of his Phillies contract. Lebron also took less money to play for a team and city he felt comfortable with and that he believed could get him the most rings (if you haven’t been watching the Heat’s renaissance lately, you are missing out on proof that they could win one sooner than we thought). Lebron’s contract ended being about 10 million dollars less than the maximum 6-year/$120 million max contract he was eligible for which when its all said and done may be more of a "sacrifice" than Lee is making if he meets all of the requirements for the optional 6th year.

3) Cliff Lee left a small market franchise, that he led to its first World Series in its 38-year history (since 1972) to go to a dream team of sorts that he was comfortable with and could consistently win him pennants. Lebron James left a small market franchise, that he led to its first NBA finals in its 37-year history for a team and city he could have fun and win with. The only difference between Lee and James is that James had an hour long TV show to commemorate his decision and raise money for charity, while Cliff Lee has done everything through the “proper” channels. He called the Rangers and his agent called the Yankees to reveal his decision. Is that really enough to justify the extreme difference in reactions? I don’t see any Cliff Lee jerseys getting set on fire, or national media calling out Lee for a lack of competitive fire. No one other than maybe Nolan Ryan will say “If it was me, I would never want to play with the guys I faced off against and who traded me last season instead of giving me an extension right away.” There won’t be legends and media pining for the old days where athletes hated other teams and signing on a team with an established star meant admitting that you were inferior and not good enough to do it yourself. Lee will be just like Lebron on the Heat, the second banana. Wade and Halladay are the resident leaders of the respective teams. But for some reason Lee is applauded for his decision and praised as a true competitor. The media is focusing on how good this team will be and not on how Lee let down the Rangers and their fans coming off a World Series run. At least Lebron left after they got dominated in the Eastern Conference finals, the Rangers made the World Series!

Maybe it’s because Lee isn't the spectacle that Lebron is; maybe it’s because its baseball not basketball and the individual is never bigger than the team; maybe it’s because he is returning to a team he already played for and was loved on; or, I hate to say it, maybe it’s like Lebron said, about race (see CNN interview and article here http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/LeBron-James-says-race-was-a-factor-in-backlash-?urn=nba-273678.) I don’t know why, but everyone who is applauding Lee as an unselfish, winner, who is sacrificing money to be happy and win multiple championships needs to remember the criticism and scorn they had when Lebron decided to team up with his version of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. People have to choose one train of thought or another; I for one applaud both of them, and think that this is a great sign for sports. Deep down though, I kind of want somebody like Steve Carlson, or Greg Maddux to come out and question Lee for not being an “alpha dog” or being “the Scottie Pippen to Roy Halladay’s Michael Jordan” just for the pure hilarity of the comments. And maybe the pundits should be more critical as Lee is signing back with a team who didn't think he was worth signing last year and traded to "replenish the farm system." Shouldn't a true competitor want to stick it to this team every chance he can get? Wouldn't that show the competitive fire we demand from our athletes more than simply signing back with them to win a couple more championships?

Both of these players, Lebron and Cliff, simply made smart and selfish decisions, which in the sports world, where athlete’s peak earning years last only until their mid-thirties, are the only type we should expect athletes to make.

What were they thinking?

The biggest storyline for me early in the season has been the stupidity of some head coaches when it comes to rotations. The beginning of the season is the time to tinker with rotations; however, there have been some terrible examples of coaching that are truly indefensible. Let’s take a look at some examples.

1) Tom Thibodeau and Derrick Rose in Thursday’s Game against the Knicks

The Knicks spent the first three quarters of Thursday night’s game building a 21 point lead due to some remarkable marksmanship from Danilo Gallinari and Toney Douglas. The game appeared to be out of reach, so Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau inserted his second unit consisting of CJ Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik and took out Rose and Luol Deng out with 9:31 left on the clock. The bench unit played well and cut the lead to 9 with five minutes left in the game. This would appear to be a perfect time to reinsert your best three players (Rose, Deng, and Noah) to finish the comeback against a notoriously porous Knick defense. Apparently this wasn’t obvious to the rookie head coach as he left the bench in as they stalled and lost the game 120 – 112.

You can’t say Thibodeau forgot or didn’t realize Rose was on the bench either, as the crowd began a chant “We want Rose! We want Rose” at around the 5-minute mark. Apparently defensive intensity was the key; according to the coach “That group (the second unit) was playing pretty well. We had gone with the starters a little longer to start the second half. When we got down 15 is when I subbed them. The second unit, I thought, fought hard to close [the gap]. I wanted to see what they could get out of it. The way the Knicks' guards were shooting, I thought the energy to get out to the line was what we needed … I thought about putting the starters back in, but the second group was getting out to the 3-point line pretty well." Hmmm, okay. If you really think that Omer Asik, CJ Watson, and Kyle Korver give you a better chance to win the game than Noah, Rose, and Deng then you need to check yourself into the closest mental facility. It wasn’t as if these three weren’t playing well either. Derrick Rose had a career night assist-wise with 14 and added 24 points in 35 minutes; Noah had 12 points, 13 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks in 33 minutes, and Deng finished with 17 points and 4 rebounds.

Don’t try to get cute Thibodeau, play your best players with a chance to win the game. Noah is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate; I highly doubt that Omer Asik (Who???) gives you a better shot at winning the game. Derrick Rose is a top-5 point guard in the league and your best scorer; you don’t think he could have lead an 8 point run over the likes of Toney Douglas and Raymond Felton? Like Charles Barkley said on Inside the NBA, there is a reason the bench players are on the bench, because they are not finishers. They did a great job cutting down the lead, but when the chips are down, you have to play your top guys. There is no excuse for that stupidity except for a coach’s ego, desire to teach a lesson, or that he wanted to limit his star’s minutes for tonight’s game in Boston against the Celtics. The latter is the only reason that is somewhat forgivable. If Thibodeau really thought they had no chance at coming back against the Knicks and wanted to save his stars’ legs for the second game in a back-to-back against a rival, then at least I can understand the logic. But he needs to come out and say that, because you can’t expect the fans to buy that he really thought the second unit gave Chicago a better chance of winning.

2) Kurt Rambis and Kevin Love thus far in the Season

As a young coach in the league trying to earn respect while coaching a team that went 15 – 67 last year, why on earth would you not play our former #5 overall pick power forward who is one of the best rebounders in the league already? Well, you might guess, maybe the coach has another big man who has more talent. Nope, your GM traded away Al Jefferson for a new washer/dryer and a bag of balls. Well maybe the team plays better without him, you might guess. Nope, with Love the team is a little better. In games Love has played more than 30 minutes the Wolves are 14-38 which translates to a winning percentage of .269. In games where Love plays less than 30 minutes, the Wolves have a 40-128 mark (.238). Lastly, maybe the fans don’t like the player, or maybe he is a bad apple off the court. That isn’t the case with Kevin Love, the fans love him and called/emailed the Timberwolves front office more than 100 times after Kevin played only 24 minutes in the season-opening loss to the Sacramento Kings and was pulled in favor of D-League All-Star Anthony Tolliver for the entire fourth quarter in what ended up being a one-point loss.

That leads me to one conclusion; Kurt Rambis should not be an NBA coach. He obviously lacks the strategy and knowledge to succeed. If that wasn’t evident from last season’s horrendous attempt to run the triangle with a team lacking shooters and loaded with point guards who thrive when penetrating to the hoop, then it is definitely evident during this season’s 1 – 4 start that includes a 42-point loss at the hands of the Orlando Magic. Love has averaged 16.8 points and 10.8 rebounds (8th in the league) in 26.4 minutes a game. If you projected those stats as if Love played 36 minutes, Love would roughly be averaging 23 points and 15 rebounds a game. That would place Love at the top of the list in rebounds per game. But hey, who would want one of the most prolific rebounders in the game who also has an effective offensive game to play more than 26 minutes a game on a team with no other legitimate NBA big men? As much as I want to blame David Kahn for this discrepancy, this one falls on the Phil Jackson wannabe, Kurt Rambis. I guess I can’t expect much more from a guy who has 16 wins total over his coaching career.

Is the Heat on in Miami?

After watching last night’s game in full (on DVR until 12:15 thanks to a playoff basketball game of my own, that’s dedication!), I have definitely learned a couple things about my NBA favorite Miami Heat. Many were underwhelmed and let down with the Heat’s performance, myself included. The Lebron haters could not have been happier with this performance. It is important to temper both pessimistic and optimistic views of what the Heat will do this season.

Let’s start with reasons to be pessimistic:

1) Erik Spoelstra = Mike Brown

Everyone thought that Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra would change his philosophy offensively to fit his new weapons and play at a faster pace than in previous seasons. Most also thought that he would be a superior coach to Mike Brown solely because he would allow Lebron to finally get out on the break and show off his freight-train like ability to get to the basket. We may have spoken too soon.

It is only one game, against the Boston Celtics who also like to play slow (22nd out of 30 teams in pace last season – pace measures the number of possessions per 48 minutes for a team), however Miami had a pace rating of 89.5 which is extremely low (it would have ranked 27th out of 30 last season.) Part of me wants to believe that this was just a byproduct of the Celtics excellent defense and slow pace themselves, but Erik Spoelstra has run slow offenses historically. In 2008-2009, the Heat had a pace rating of 89.9 (22/30), and in 2009-2010 the Heat had a pace rating of 89.6. This pace is even slower than the Cavs’ pace last season of 91.4 which caused every expert to question why Brown didn’t push the ball and eventually had a role in his firing. Maybe this is just how Spoelstra prefers his team to play or maybe it is how Lebron prefers to play, but this year’s team will be at its best when it is running in the fast break with Wade and James with Chris Bosh trailing. They simply do not have the components necessary to have an effective half court offense.

The thing that scared me about watching the Heat on offense last night is that is how similar the sets looked to Mike Brown’s sets last year. The Heat slowed it down consistently and ran the high pick-and-roll with Lebron as the ball handler most of the time. That is exactly what I thought would be left in Cleveland. Lebron is best with the ball in his hands no doubt, but the half-court offense cannot just consist of Lebron holding the ball and taking jump shots at the end of the 24-second clock. Lebron shot his jumper at a high percentage last night (50% from 16 feet and out), but it does not seem logical to settle for perimeter jump shots when you have two of the best penetrators in the league on the same team. The Heat needs to learn how to get easy buckets in the half-court, and until they do, they need to push the tempo and get as many fast break points as possible before opposing defenses can clog the paint.

2) Lack of chemistry between the big three

Again, part of this is probably because we just haven’t given the Celtics enough credit for still being the best defensive team in the league. However, I thought that having 2 of the top 5 and 3 of the top 15 players in the league would translate into offensive efficiency, alleys oops, back door cuts and the like against any and all competitors. We learned last night that no matter how good the Miami Thrice is individually, they all need to sacrifice and decide how they work best as a team. In my opinion, the Heat’s offense was almost preordained on each possession. One time down, Lebron would decide he was going to shoot, the next Wade would get the ball and Bosh would get whatever scraps he could. Like I said before, Lebron at least produced by making shots. Wade looked particularly bad. Every time he got the ball I felt like he was trying to prove to me that he was still “the man” and would jack up an ill-conceived shot. Way too many out of control drives and contested jumpers for D-Wade. Furthermore, Wade failed to move well without the ball which was a concern prior to the season. He needs to figure out when to cut and how to get effective shots without being able to handle the ball as much. Lebron runs the team now, and Wade needs to adjust. The two lacked chemistry in every phase of the game whether it was Lebron throwing a pass behind Wade after he cut, or Lebron failing to get the ball to Wade out in front of him on the fast break play where Pierce took the charge that was called in Lebron’s favor. Like Wade, I felt Bosh had similar symptoms of trying to prove to everyone that he belonged. It seemed as though he shot the ball almost every time he touched it, and he took way too many perimeter jump shots with Garnett right in his face. Will the lack of chemistry be a prolonged issue, or will these three stars adjust quickly to benefit the team? Pessimists would say that these three players had 3 of the top 10 usage percentages last season (stat the measure the percentage of possessions a player uses/takes a shot) and that they only know how to play with the ball in their hands. The bad habits they have learned will be tougher to break than we thought. One thing is for sure, 15 turnovers between the big three will not cut it if the Heat wants to win a title.

Now here are the optimistic reasons:

1) They played the Celtics in Boston in the first game of the year after only playing limited minutes together in preseason, and only lost by 8.

This is definitely something for the Heat to hang their hat on. The announcers kept saying it was a “playoff atmosphere” in the Garden and the intensity was high. Let’s jump forward to the playoffs; if the Heat lost by 8 in Boston in a playoff series we would not be astounded or amazed. In playoff games (which last night apparently had the atmosphere of one) between two good teams, the home team is supposed to have the advantage. It’s not like the Heat got dominated by 20, they lost by 8, and if Lebron made a better play defensively at the end of the game when Allen ran of the baseline screens for the open three, it would have been an even closer game. The Celtics were 9-3 at home in the postseason last year, plus they had the motivation of opening the season against the Heat and showing the world that they are still the team to beat in the East. Feeling disrespected can be a huge motivator for a team and there is no doubt that Garnett and Shaq were definitely playing a few years younger last night. It will be interesting to see if the Celtics keep up the enthusiasm and effort, or if they coast through the regular season like last year and then turn it up in the postseason. The most telling quote was after the game when Craig Sager asked Rajon Rondo if the Heat were still the team to beat in the East. Rondo responded with a smirk “Nah, I think we are the team,” and ran off.

When all is said and done, the Heat rebounded from a 9 point first quarter and a 30 point first half to make the game competitive and even be within three points at one juncture. They did this despite a hostile Boston crowd that serenaded Lebron with “boos” every time he touched the ball. Miami definitely didn’t impress in game 1, but they also were much more competitive than many other teams would be in a similar situation and had a chance to steal the game.

2) The Heat’s defense looked good; not every team defends like the Celtics

Let’s start with the Heat’s defense. They were good, but not great. They held the Celtics to 46% shooting which is mediocre. The Heat and Celtics both hit 8 threes but the Celtics did it on 16 attempts while it took Miami 20 attempts. This is indicative of the fact that Boston has a plethora of options in the post to dump the ball down to. In the words of Charles Barkley, they get easy buckets. And that matters, Shaq, Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, Big Baby, and Pierce all excel on the post and get them easy buckets. It also helps when you have a point guard who can slice and dice a defense like Rondo can (17 assists). Put these two factors together and you have the recipe for a good half court offense, especially when you add Ray Allen doing his Reggie Miller impression to get wide open threes. The Celtics just have so many weapons. That being said, the Heat definitely showed the ability to cause turnovers and block shots last night. Wade, Lebron and company forced 18 turnovers had 10 steals and blocked 6 shots last night. They need to continue this effort if they want to transition to a more fast-paced offense and continue to excel on defense. If they can improve their offensive efficiency by getting easier shots (like the Celtics did), they will become the contender I believe that they are. Just as an illustration, last night 46 out of Miami’s 74 field goal attempts were from longer than 10 feet (62%). The Celtics in contrast only shot 33 out of their 69 field goals from outside of 10 feet (47%). No wonder the Celtics shot a better percentage and won.

The Heat should be able to get easier shots against teams that are not as exceptional defensively as the Celtics are. This is a team with a point guard that led the league in steals per game last season, a power forward who won the Defensive Player of the Year award 2 years ago, and some serious beef at center with Shaquille commanding the paint. Add in Paul Pierce’s ability to frustrate Lebron and the poise and savvy of Ray Allen, and you have a team that will easily finish in the top 5 in defense this season. If the Heat struggle tonight with the 76ers, then we can begin to worry a little bit more. But as of now, this is just a case of a team with a lot of talent who hasn’t played together getting beaten by a team with a lot of talent who has played together for 3 seasons and made the finals twice. Give the Heat some time to gel. I think it will be a rarity for Dwayne Wade to play as bad as he did Tuesday. I still stand by my statement that they will finish as the best team in the East record-wise, however I now am somewhat doubtful in their ability to beat a team like Boston in the playoffs.

Eastern Conference Preview

Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

1) Miami Heat*
2) Chicago Bulls*
3) Boston Celtics*
4) Orlando Magic
5) Milwaukee Bucks
6) Atlanta Hawks
7) New York Knicks
8) Philadelphia 76ers

*Denotes Division Winner

Atlantic Division

1) Boston Celtics *Division Winner
Key Additions: Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal, Delonte West, Avery Bradley (R)
Key Subtractions: Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen

By far the favorite of the Division, the Celtics are the only team that will be a viable contender to make the NBA finals from the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are one year older, one year slower (with the exception of Rondo) but they are still as hungry as ever. The Celtics will most likely work hard to secure a top four seed in the East, but that will be about it. After last season we know that they can turn it on in the postseason when necessary, and with a starting lineup with consisting of aging vets I anticipate this strategy recurring in ’10-’11.

Player to Watch: Rajon Rondo

Look for Rajon Rondo to continue to improve on his mid-range jumpshot, and lead this team throughout the regular season schedule as the only starter with young legs. But, if Rondo goes down (which is possible after logging tons of minutes in the playoffs and not having the whole summer off due to FIBA) expect the Celtics to struggle with Nate Robinson, Delonte West and Avery Bradley as their backup point guards.. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and the O’Neal’s do not have the stamina to play heavy minutes in the regular season without hindering their chances to challenge the Heat and Magic in the postseason.

Outlook:

I expect the Celtics to win 50+ games, win the Atlantic Division, and lock up 3rd place in the Eastern Conference and avoid the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. They obviously are the class of this division, however I do see them exiting in the second round of the playoffs to the Heat. Rondo would have to improve this season as much as he did last season in order for me to project them any higher. Another interesting storyline will be whether the Celtics’ defense will be as impressive with Kendrick Perkins gone for the first half of the season and Tom Thibodeau coaching in Chicago.


2) New York Knicks *Dark Horse Team
Key Addition – Amare Stoudemire, Raymond Felton,Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azebuike, Roger Mason, Timofey Mozgov, Andy Rautins (R), Landry Fields (R)
Key Losses – David Lee, Chris Duhon

After striking out on Wade and Lebron, the Knicks salvaged their free-agent haul by acquiring Amare Stoudemire in a sign-and-trade with Phoenix for 5-years/$100 million. That may be overpaying someone who struggles with defensive intensity, rebounding, and health. Luckily, in coach Mike D’Antoni’s system, Amare doesn’t have to worry about defense. If Stoudemire’s knees can stay intact (the main reason Phoenix wouldn’t give him a max deal), this signing will accomplish what it set out to: making the Knicks watchable and competitive and giving them an identity and marketable star for one of the NBA’s biggest markets. The rest of the additions should help the Knicks increase their win total as well. Raymond Felton is a huge upgrade over last year’s point guards Chris Duhon and Toney Douglas. He will obviously benefit from D’antoni’s system and I expect him to have a career year in all statistical categories due to the inflated numbers that come from the 7 Seconds or Less system.

Player to watch: Amare Stoudemire

If he gets injured (3/8 years of 55 games or less), the Knicks will be hard to watch and be in the Lottery next season. Felton will be a decent second banana, but Amare has to perfrom at an all-star/MVP level for the team to win games. As long as he is healthy, his reunion with D’Antoni will be fun to watch and result in huge numbers for the 100 million dollar man.

Outlook:

The rumor mill has been flooded with information pertaining to the Knicks making progress in obtaining Carmelo Anthony in a trade this season. The main reason may be that Carmelo will not sign a long-term deal with anyone but the Knicks. Other reasons include Danilo Galinari’s preseason struggles have taken him off the Nuggets wish-list (the Knicks were hesitant to include him in earlier trades); The Knicks will be able to obtain a first round pick to send to Denver; There may be a third team involved that would send a player to the Nuggets that they would want; and lastly, Denver is realizing that they need to get rid of Carmelo fast as George Karl has been unable to convince the star to sign a contract extension. If the Knicks can execute the trade and bring Carmelo to New York, I think this guarantees that they will be a playoff team this year but not a contender. They would probably finish with high 40’s to low 50’s in the Win column. This would be a huge story, and expect the national media to spend many hours detailing the return of the Knicks. Stoudemire, Anthony, Felton, Chandler, and Mozgov/Turiaf is a starting lineup that has some tremendous offensive potential in D’Antoni’s system. They would be a good regular season team, but fall short in the playoffs like all of D’Antoni’s run and gun teams have in the past.

3) Philadelphia 76ers
Key Additions – Evan Turner (R), Craig Brackins (R),Spencer Hawes, Andres Nocioni
Key Losses – Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green (I use “Key” Liberally), Jason Smith

My hometown team had a decent offseason by unloading Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green, and Jason Smith in return for Spencer Hawes, Andres Nocioni, and Craig Brackins. All three of these players are underrated, and should help the 76ers improve over last season with Doug Collins at the helm. They also got lucky with receiving the 2nd pick, however they used it on Evan Turner. At the time it wasn’t a bad pick as Turner was the Naismith Player of the Year last season and was the consensus #2 pick and a solid character on and off the court. It also helped that he almost averaged a triple double in conference play last season. However, after struggling through summer league and the preseason, Turner may already be in Collins’ doghouse and Philly fans are already wishing they had taken Demarcus Cousins who looks like he will average a double-double from day one.

Player to Watch: Jrue Holiday

The youngest player in the league last year, Holiday, showed that he could be a starting point guard in this league for years to come. By all accounts, Holiday has worked hard to improve in the offense, so much so that new coach Doug Collins claimed that Holiday would be a top 5 point guard in this league. While I don’t necessarily agree with Collins, especially this year, I do see some great potential in the youngster. First off, Holiday is a big physical point guard with exceptional defensive talents. Secondly, he is the Sixers only decent 3-point shooter in the starting lineup, shooting at a 39.1% clip last season. Lastly, Holiday has had a great summer and preseason. In summer league, Holiday showed an increased aggressiveness and point guard skills to the point that he was one of the best players in the Orlando League. Thus far in preseason, Holiday struggled out of the gate, but has performed much better as of late including a triple double (18pts, 11 rebs, 12 assists) against the Raptors that showed just how versatile Holiday can be. If Jrue develops significantly, that can reduce the pressure on Iguodala to carry the team and help the 76ers and their fans have hope.

Outlook:

Although this team is weak up front, I still think they will finish right at .500 and have a shot at the 8th seed in the playoffs. I think this for two reasons. First, The two season prior to the horrendous Eddie Jordan experience, the 76ers finished right at .500. I expect Doug Collins to develop a game plan more tailored to the personnel and their collective strengths: running the break with Holiday, Lou Williams, Igoudala, Thaddeus Young, and Evan Turner. This team is built to run, and Jordan’s motion offense really stifled the Sixers’ development. The second reason the team will fight to make the playoffs is because of Doug Collins. This is his 4th head coaching gig, and in his first three (Chicago, Detroit, Washington) Collins improved his team’s record by an average of 15.3 wins per season (10, 18, 18 respectively). He does this by emphasizing defense, and being a renowned taskmaster on his players. If Collins can improve the Sixers record by 15 games from last year, that would bring their record to 42-40; a .500 record should still get you in the playoffs this year in the East.


4) New Jersey Nets
Key Additions: Troy Murphy, Derrick Favors (R), Travis Outlaw, Anthony Morrow, Jordan Farmar, Damion James (R), Avery Johnson (Coach)
Key Subtractions: Courtney Lee, Chris Douglas Roberts, Yi Jianlian, Keyon Dooling

The biggest addition the Nets may have scored this offseason is at Head Coach. The 2005-2006 NBA Coach of the Year has a career winning percentage of .735 and has never won less than 51 games in a full season. These numbers were achieved with a strong Dallas Mavericks team with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Josh Howard, however, Avery has shown that he is an impactful coach in this league. Avery Johnson replaced Don Nelson and improved the Mavericks’ Defensive Rating from 26th in the league in 03-04 to 11th in 05-06 and 5th in 06-07. Despite losing to the Warriors as a 1 seed in the 06-07 playoffs, Avery still coached that team to a 67-15 record and fell victim to Don Nelson knowing how to dismantle the team he helped build. Johnson loves to plays a slower paced game and will look to utilize budding start Brook Lopez in the low post, and new addition Troy Murphy in the high post to offset the penetration of Devin Harris at point guard on offense. Also new additions Anthony Morrow, Jordan Farmar, and Travis Outlaw will provide some offensive firepower and shooting prowess to a Nets team that only won 12 games last season.

Player to Watch: Devin Harris

Who is the real Devin Harris? In the 08-09 season, Harris averaged 21.3 pts, 6.9 assists, and 8.8 free throw attempts per game and was named an Eastern Conference All-Star. In 09-10, Harris reverted back to his previous production levels (coincidentally under Avery Johnson) of 16.9 pts, 6.6 assists, and 6.0 free throw attempts per game. His PER fell from 21.6 – 16.2, his ORtg fell from 113 – 103, and his Win Shares fell from 7.5 – 2.7. We are talking about going from being one of the better point guards in the league (3rd in PER in 08-09) to being an average starting point guard (22nd in PER in 09-10 just behind Jarret Jack). Which player will show up for this season? I think that he will be somewhere in the middle and average 18 pts and 6 assists a game. The key will be whether he regains his aggressiveness in driving to the hoop. According to Hoopsdata, Harris attempted 39% of his field goals inside the paint on 08-09 and only 34% in 09-10. If Harris can drive and kick to the Nets new perimeter shooters Anthony Morrow and Troy Murphy and find his big men Lopez and Favors, the Nets may be able to improve dramatically from last season.

Outlook:

The Nets are probably a few years away from being a contender (unless they can score Carmelo Anthony in a trade), however if everything goes right for them they could come close to tripling their win total from last year and finishing with a record of 36-46. I think Avery will definitely help improve the Nets’ defense and instill a work ethic and competitiveness in this young team. They remind me somewhat of the Charlotte Bobcats last season due to the fact that the addition of a quality coach with a good strategy may be able to help them sneak in the playoffs. If nothing else, the Nets will have hope, and right now, that is all a Nets fan can ask for.

5) Toronto Raptors
Key Additions – Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Julian Wright, Ed Davis (R)
Key Losses – Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu (again using “key” LIBERALLY),

Outlook:

Without Chris Bosh, the Raptors will be in the basement of the division and a favorite to win the lottery next season. They are without a go-to player, a strategy, and a defensive/rebounding presence. Andrea Bargnani will be allowed to shoot whenever he wants and convince us that the number 1 pick used on him wasn’t such a bad decision. I just don’t think that he will.

Player to Watch:

No one, try not to watch the Raptors.



Central Division:

1) Chicago Bulls
Key Additions – Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Kurt Thomas, Omer Asik (R), Tom Thibodeau (Coach)
Key Losses – Kirk Hinrich, Hakim Warrick.

The Bulls were another team that whiffed on James and Wade, however like the Knicks, The Bulls still managed to sign players that fit with their current stars and should, when healthy, form a formidable team that can challenge the Miami Heat for the Eastern Conference title. I have already shared my feelings on this blog about the Bulls and their strengths. Boozer and Noah are a great combination in the post. Boozer needs a long, shot-blocking center to cover his defensive deficiencies while Noah lacks the low post scoring prowess to make the Bulls a contender with him as the primary post option. Combine these two with the development of Derrick Rose in his third year and you have a big three that can compete with the Heat. Rose was unguardable last year, and showed an improved jump shot in FIBA competition this year. Also the fact that he was named the starting point guard over Chauncey Billups, Russell Westbrook, and Rajon Rondo shows that he has arrived as a top-five point guard in this league. I expect him to continue to get better as a passer and defender; and remember that Rose is coming off a superb playoff performance against Lebron and the Cavs. He averaged 26.7 points and 7.2 assists over that 5 game stretch with Lebron James guarding him in crunch time. D-Rose is going to have a huge year.

Player to Watch: Joakim Noah

I’m not going to rehash my whole previous post on why the Bulls shouldn’t and didn’t trade Noah for Carmelo. In short, Noah is the biggest challenger to Dwight Howard when it comes to the Defensive Player of the Year award. He is the energy that makes this team go, and Tom Thibodeau will make him an even better defender and the focal point of his defensive scheme.

Outlook:

I expect the Bulls to win 55+ games even without Boozer for the first couple months of the season. Taj Gibson showed last season he can be an effective starter, and Derrick Rose can assume the load offensively. The improved defense will be responsible for this increase. The Bulls will be fighting the Magic and Celtics for one of the top 4 seeds in the East.

2) Milwaukee Bucks
Key Additions: Drew Gooden, Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Earl Boykins,Keyon Dooling, Jon Brockman, Larry Sanders (R)
Key Losses: Luke Ridnour, Charlie Bell, Dan Gadzuric

I like the additions the small-market Bucks made this year to improve their team. This team has a shot to challenge for a top-4 seed in the East if Brandon Jennings develops by shooting a higher percentage, increasing assists, and decreasing turnovers. The Bucks also are very dependent on Andrew Bogut. This would be okay except the Aussie can’t seem to stay healthy. After his freak elbow injury last season, it will be interesting to see if he can continue to play as he did last season. As long as he is healthy and able to block shots and steady the team defensively, the Bucks will be a strong team. They have added depth at PF, SF, and SG and will be one of the deeper teams in the league. Maggette and Salmons are two accomplished scorers that love to get to the free throw line. This will allow Jennings to improve his shot selection and become more of a pass-first point guard.

Player to Watch: Brandon Jennings

If Jennings can become more efficient this year shooting the ball, expect the Bucks offensive rating to shoot up. Jennings shot a wretched 37.1 % from the field last season and had the worst shooting percentage in the league for shots at the basket (39.1), second worst in shooting percentage for two-pointers overall. This needs to improve for the Bucks to increase their points per game which ranked 23/30 last season at 97.7 ppg. If Jennings can play a more composed and efficient game and the Bucks can continue to defend well (2nd in the league in Defensive Rating), other teams will start fearing the deer.

Outlook:

I think the Bucks will end up finishing second in the division and 5th in the Conference. They are definitely a well-coached team and have an improved roster from last year. However, they don’t have the star power to match up with the Heat, Magic, Bulls, or Celtics, and they are one Bogut injury away from barely making the playoffs. Due to the fact that Bogut has missed an average of 17.8 games a year in his 5 year career and that there are still concerns over the recovery of his elbow, I will have to temper the expectations for the Bucks.

3) Indianapolis Pacers
Key Additions – Darren Collison, James Posey, Paul George (R), Lance Stephenson (R), Magnum Rolle (R)
Key Losses – Troy Murphy, Earl Watson

Player to Watch: Roy Hibbert

Hibbert was got treatment for Asthma over the offseason and also worked hard to drop 15-20 pounds in order to keep up with Jim O’Brien’s fast-paced offense. The work seems to have paid off, he has looked like a beast in preseason (17.5 pts, 9.7 rebs, 2.2 blks, 3.3 assists per game.)

Outlook:

The Pacers have some solid young players with potential but will fall into the lottery again after this season.

4) Detroit Pistons
Key Additions – Greg Monroe (R), Tracy McGrady, Terrico White (R)
Key Losses – None

Player to Watch: Ben Gordon

After a terrible season last year, it will be interesting to see whether Gordon lives up to the contract Joe Dumars extended to him last season. With the logjam the Pistons have a shooting guard, it will be difficult for Gordon to improve dramatically over last season.

Outlook:

The Pistons spent franchise player money on role players (Villanueva, Gordon, Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince) who haven’t produced. They have some nice young pieces in Austin Daye, Monroe, Jerebko, Stuckey, and White but with the well-paid veterans on the roster, it may be difficult for them to get the minutes they need to develop the team for the long-term.

5) Cleveland Cavaliers
Key Additions - Ramon Sessions, Kyle Lowry, Christian Eyenga, Ryan Hollins, Joey Graham, Jawad Williams, Samuardo Samuels,
Key Losses – Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal, Zydruanas Ilgauskas, Delonte West

Player to Watch: J.J. Hickson

He should be a Most Improved Player candidate and may win the award in attempt to keep Cleveland fans from jumping off a cliff. He has looked great whenever he was given time and should average close to a double double as the unquestioned starter at power forward.

Outlook:

Sorry Cavs fans, the good days are over. When Hickson and Mo Williams are your best players, that spells a long season. Good luck in the lottery, maybe you can hit the lotto and win the rights to UNC’s Harrison Barnes next year.

Southeast Division:

1) Miami Heat
Key Additions – Lebron James, Chris Bosh, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, Eddie House, Jamaal Magloire, Dexter Pittman (R), Jarvis Varnado (R)
Key Losses – Michael Beasley, Jermaine O’Neal, Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright, Quentin Richardson

If you read this blog, you know that I think the Heat are the class of the East. I’m not going to waste everyone’s time with an in-depth preview of the team. If you don’t know everything about them by now, you have been living under a rock. The team has their own ESPN website and had a welcome party in South Beach that beat attendance numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays. I love the team, and I expect them to win the East by a considerable margin.

2) Orlando Magic
Key Additions – Chris Duhon, Quentin Richardson
Key Losses – Matt Barnes, More of Vince Carter’s Athleticism

The Magic essentially stood pat while the rest of the contenders in the East bolstered their rosters with impact players. For some teams, like the Thunder last season, that can work and pay off. However for the Magic, it is a riskier proposition. Their roster doesn't contain as much potential at each posision like the Thunder's did. Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, and even Jameer Nelson regressed signicantly last year. Nelson is the only one with a reasonable percentage of rebounding from his slump; Lewis and Carter will most likely get worse. An increased role for J.J. Redick, and Brandon Bass may be the answer to the declining skill of Lewis and Carter. If those two, especially Redick, can contribute like they did in the playoffs last season, the Magic will be able to achieve a top-3 record in the East.

Player to Watch: Dwight Howard

Seriously, watch this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mArHU1ewSog). Everything in the preceding paragraph can be nullified if Superman can implement what he learned this summer from Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard excels when matched against inferior physical talent most nights. This allows him to bully his way to the basket and get an assortment of dunks and layups. However, as we saw last year, when confronted with defenders who match him in size and strength, Howard struggles. And when teams don't have to double team Dwight, that cuts down on the open threes for the supporting cast that makes the Magic so deadly. If the Magic want to improve this season, look to see whether Dwight can add solid post moves to offensive repertoire; if he does, the Magic could get back to the NBA finals.

Outlook:

It's a shame that Orlando is in the same conference as Miami. While I think the Magic is a team that could beat the Heat due to Miami's lack of interior defense, I don't think they will finish with a better regular season record than them. This means that they will be stuck in the four seed in the East instead of their customary top-3 in the past couple seasons. I think the Magic are more of a contender than the Bulls this season to represent the East, but if they have to face the Celtics in the playoffs, I don't think they will make it through. With Shaq and kendrick Perkins able to body Howard, the Celtics will be able to eliminate the Magic from contention unless Dwight unleashes the Dream Shake on the league.

3) Atlanta Hawks
Key Additions – Josh Powell, Jordan Crawford (R), Larry Drew (Coach)
Key Losses – Josh Childress

Another boring offseason for the Hawks. Like the Magic, Atlanta essentially stood pat as they didn't lose any major contriutors, but also didn't gain any. The main difference will be on the bench with rookie head coach Larry Drew taking over the reins from Mike Woodson after an embarrassing 2nd round exit from the postseason at the hands of the Magic. Coach Drew is installing a motion offense as opposed to the isolation and slow-paced attack Mike Woodson ran the past few years. i would expect an adjustment period, and it is within the realm of possibility that the veterans on the team don't buy into the new scheme. Josh Smith has never exactly been a coach pleaser. If Smith and Al Horford along with my player to watch can all improve while Joe Johnson continues to play at an all-star level, the Hawks will be a playoff team.

Player to Watch: Jeff Teague

Larry Drew and the Hawks brass have to to be praying that Teague can take over for the relic that is Mike Bibby at some point this season. Bibby has turned into a stand still shooter and defensive liability at this point. The Hawks went out and hired former point guard Nick Van Exel in the offseason to help Teague develop as a point guard and find his "dog" (aggressiveness for those unaware). Looking at last year's per 36 minute statistics, Teague shows potential as he averaged 11.4 pts, 6.1 assists, 3.4 rebs, and 1.7 steals. The main issue with Teague last season was a terrible shooting percentage. He only shot 39.6% from the field and 21.9% from three. If Teague finds his inner dog and that dog improves his field goal percentage, Teague could be a breakout player and provide the shot in the arm that the front office failed to provide in the offseason. In one game during this preseason (before an ankle injury), Teague scored 20 points on 8/13 shooting, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Taht is the type of impact coach Larry Drew has to hope for, or the Hawks will have a season that brings them back to reality.

Outlook:

I have Atlanta finishing a few games over .500 and securing the 6th seed in the East. This would have been great for the franchise 3 years ago, but now it will be a great disappointment. Especially after they signed Joe Johnson to a 6-year $120 million deal that will not allow them to make any splashes in free agency over the enxt six years. This team will have to continue to make solid draft picks and develop them from within or they will not be a playoff team in this conference much longer.

4) Charlotte Bobcats
Key Additions – Shaun Livingston, Eduardo Najera, Kwame Brown
Key Losses – Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler, Alexis Ajinca

Writing about the Bobcats is like writing about vanilla ice cream, its boring. The Bobcats will have another year of Larry Brown coaching them. They made no major moves this offseason and lost significant pieces to the team that made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season. I could bore you with more about this team, but it comes down to it, if the Bobcats regress defensively at all (1st overall in pts allowed per game at 93.8 and 1st overall in defensive rating last season), they will again find themselves in the lottery as they don't have the offensive firepower to make up for any increase in points allowed. By losing Felton and Chandler they have inserted D.J. Augustin and Nazr Mohammed. That is not a recipe for success. I expect them to finish with a win total in the low to mid 30's.

5) Washington Wizards
Key Additions – John Wall (R),Kirk Hinrich, Yi Jianlian, Hilton Armstrong, Kevin Seraphim (R), Trevor Booker (R)
Key Losses – Mike Miller, Randy Foye, James Singleton, Quinton Ross

The Wizards are relevant this season solely because of John Wall and the excitement he brings to the arena on a nightly basis. However, I just can't see Wall being able to carry this team to a respectable record, which is fine. Washington needs to be in the lottery to get more talent and provide Wall with some running mates. With Gilbert Arenas' 4-year $80 million remaining contract on the books, the Wizards won't be players in free agency for a few more years. The division and conference is too strong for the Wizards to compete. I do, however, expect John Wall to revive basketball in Washington, and lets hope that the biggest thing for the Wizards this year is that they successfully start the process to change their name back to the Bullets.

And the winner is...

In my first season awards preview, I will be looking at the Most Valuable Player Award (MVP) for the upcoming 2010-2011 season.

Who should win:

Kevin Durant (SF – OKC)

Surprise, surprise…This had become the trendy pick after Durant's flat-out world domination in the FIBA World Basketball Championship this summer. The tournament allowed him to showcase his unbelievable scoring ability while reassuring the world that he can be the type of team leader and clutch player that so far Lebron has not been.

The MVP Voters tend to be a year late on who should win the Award. Durant probably should have received the award last year after he lead the Thunder from a 23-59 season to a 50-32 season. The development of Durant was primarily responsible for the increase of 27 games in the win column as the Thunder did not add any significant pieces (except maybe James Harden) from '08 to '09. We know that Durant is the youngest player to ever win a scoring championship, and he averaged an impressive 30.1 pts, 7.6 rebs, 2.8 assts, 1.4 stls, and 1 block a game. He also shot 36.5% from three and 90% from the free throw line on a league-leading 840 attempts. With a summer of hard work and international seasoning, Durant should be poised to average upwards of 32 pts, 8.5 rebs, 3.5 assts, 1.8 stls, and 1.4 blks a game. As I watched the FIBA tournament, it was apparent that Durant is learning how to use his length to block more perimeter jump shots by opposing wings and to read passing lanes better. Furthermore, I expect the Thunder to end up in the top three teams in the West, which combined with OKC's increasing number of televised games, should give Durant a great shot at winning MVP and completing his ascent to true superstar status in his 4^th year.

Who will win:

Kobe Bryant (SG – LAL)

There are two reasons why Kobe will win the MVP Award in the '10 – '11 season: history and pride.

1. History .

I know that the MVP award is for the preceding season and not a career achievement award. However, in this case, voters may want to rectify the mistake(s) they made in handing out 2 MVP awards to Steve Nash and one to Dirk Nowitzki, while Kobe, sitting with 5 titles and superior statistics, only has one. Let's keep in mind that the voters for MVP are writers and broadcasters who revel in historical comparisons and cherish the history of the game. ESPN and the powers that be would love nothing more than to have more ammunition for when Stu Scott inevitably compared Kobe to Michael Jordan during the playoffs and finals. Kobe is the closest thing the NBA has had to MJ since he retired, but yet as you can see above Kobe compares in every category except for MVP's. This phenomenon will pressure the voters to award Kobe; unless Durant has such a dominant season that he cannot be ignored. The press is going to start to realize that Kobe is entering the top 5 scorers in NBA history but yet Steve Nash has more MVP's than him. Nothing against Nash, but Kobe is the better player.

There is a precedent for this type of "well, player-X is a great player and should have won an MVP award in previous seasons but he didn't, so let's give it to him now" type of award. Look at the '96-'97 season. Karl Malone won the award over Michael Jordan despite not a) leading his team to a better record than Jordan, and b) not averaging a double-double in points and rebounds (something that every PF/C MVP winner has done since 1955 except for the aforementioned Nowitzki.) Malone won this award essentially because voters were tired of voting for MJ, and Malone was reaching what many thought was the twilight of his career (age 33) without a championship or an MVP award.

2. Kobe's Pride

Kobe Bryant is one of the most prideful and competitive players in NBA history. How do I know this? Because Mike Breen has beaten it into my brain over the past two playoffs; also Kobe has proven it with the development of his snarling face. It's safe to say that a combination of the media attention on Lebron's Decision, predictions of Miami's dominance, and the anointing of Kevin Durant as the world's best basketball player have made Kobe focus on proving everyone wrong and bringing the attention back to him and the reigning champion Lakers.

Kobe as a competitor is the closest thing we have seen to Jordan. Much like Jordan, Kobe keeps track of perceived slights, and pushes himself to humiliate and prove naysayers wrong. The stories of Jordan humiliating perceived rivals are legendary. During dream team practices in 1992, columnists were creating a rivalry between Jordan and Clyde Drexler. Jordan took it upon himself to dominate and embarrass Drexler every chance he got, including in Dream Team practices to prove that the Glyde was no rival. This is how Kobe is, incredibly observant and incredibly determined to prove the so-called experts wrong.

Kobe is also very self-aware, and knows that he only has one MVP award. This is one of the only weak spots in his resume for becoming 1B to Jordan's 1A. I mean during Nash's second MVP year, Kobe led the Lakers to a 45-37 record while averaging 35.4 pts, 5.3 rebs, and 4.5 assts. The other starters on his team that season were: Smush Parker, Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, and Devean George. During Nowitzki's MVP year, Kobe led Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Kwame Brown, and Smush Parker to the playoffs again. Looking back on these teams, no wonder Kobe didn't trust his teammates back then. They were awful, and he took them farther than anyone else in the league at that time could. If he can stay healthy this year, Kobe should be able to put up good enough numbers and win the Western Conference regular season title. This will be good enough when combined with past snubs to net him his 2^nd MVP award.

Why the Bulls say "No"ah way to trading Joakim

Alas, my return (hopefully triumphant) to the blogosphere. One of the biggest NBA stories over the last month, besides Kevin Durant's domination of the World Championships, has been the trade demands of Carmelo Anthony and the game of chicken taking place out west in Denver. The Nuggets have offered Carmelo a 3-year/$65 million contract. As of now, 'Melo has elected not to sign the extension and is demanding a trade out of Denver. Because Anthony has an opt-out clause in his current contract after this season, only teams that he is willing to sign a long-term deal with are willing to trade for him. Those teams include the Clippers, Nets, Rockets, Knicks, and Bulls. Teams that may be able to give the Nuggets the best combination of picks and talent will not want to make the offer if they think Carmelo would not sign back with them. No one wants to set their team back for the next few years for a one-year rental. So we are left with the list of teams that Carmelo has given the Nuggets to find the best deal.

Of all the teams listed above, Carmelo playing with the Chicago Bulls is the most intriguing possibility for NBA fans. After and impressive offseason haul of Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and Kurt Thomas, landing Carmelo would be icing on the cake. A big three of Derek Rose, Boozer, and Anthony would certainly challenge the star power of the Miami Thrice in the East and allow the Bulls to have their best shot at a championship since #23 turned in the Nikes for golf cleats.

The problem with the Carmelo to the Bulls deal is that the Bulls have balked at the idea of giving up starting center Joakim Noah for the perennial all-star and offensive prodigy Anthony. The deal the Nuggets would be asking for is Anthony for the trio of Noah, Luol Deng, and the project that is James Johnson (found at this link http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine). The Bulls have refused to include Noah in the trade and would rather just trade Deng, Johnson, and a package of cash and draft picks.

The fan in me wants Denver to just take this trade so we can have a team to battle the Heat in the playoffs with comparable star power (I think the Bulls would win.) However, they can't for two reasons. First, Luol Deng has 4 years and $51 million left on his contract. The Nuggets and owner Stan Kroenke have historically been unwilling to incur the luxury tax; furthermore, Deng just isn't enough of a talent to replace Carmelo. The Nuggets need Noah to make the Deng contract palatable while also helping them replace what they lost in Marcus Camby a few years back. The second reason the Nuggets can't take the Bulls trade is because they can get better offers from other teams. Check out the offers I made in the ESPN trade machine for the other teams listed above: Nets (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine a potential beast in Favors and two solid starters in Williams and Murphy), Knicks (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine the long-term potential of Randolph plus the financial flexibility once Curry comes of the books), Rockets (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine the Rockets would have to use up their trade exception from the Ariza trade), and the Clippers (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine). The Nuggets have a responsibility to their fans and a business interest to either get back expiring contracts or the most talent in exchange for Anthony.

The other puzzling aspect of the trade negotiations between the Bulls and the Nuggets is the fact that the Bulls have made Joakim Noah untouchable. Many think that when you have a chance to get one of the top-5 offensive players in the game, you have to do it. But I agree with Chicago, including Noah in this possible trade would be the worst decision the Bulls could make and drastically hurt their team.

Although Noah doesn't have the most graceful and skilled game, he is the second-most important player on the Bulls' roster. Last year, Noah averaged 10.7 pts and 11 rebs (6th in the league) per game while also blocking 1.6 shots per game (8th in the league). He amassed these numbers while only playing 30 minutes per game. This y ear, Noah will come into the season healthy and the unquestioned starter for Tom Thibodeau. There is no reason to doubt that Noah's numbers and minutes will increase with Kurt Thomas and rookie Omar Asik as the only backup centers on the roster. Noah should play at least 35 minutes per game this year and he should come close to averaging 14 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game. Only 12 players averaged double-doubles in points and rebounds last year and only 5 players averaged 2 blocks or more. This makes Joakim a valuable commodity on any team, but he is more valuable on the Bulls. With Carlos Boozer as the starting power forward, you need a shot-blocking and defensive minded center to help cover up his defensive deficiencies. If they trade him away, they would be forced to play Kurt Thomas at the five; this would make them unable to guard as effectively in the low post. Offensively, Noah fits in great with the current team. You don't need to run plays for him to be happy. He will attack the glass and get easy put backs and layups. He also has begun to develop his mid range game as you can see from this shot chart from last year.

The other reason I agree with the Bulls' stance on keeping Noah is because I think Noah will become Tom Thibodeau's next Kevin Garnett defensively. Thibodeau is the defensive mastermind behind the Boston Celtics over the last 3 seasons, and helped Garnett win the Defensive Player of the Year Award in the 07-08 season. When comparing Noah last year with Garnett's award winning season, Noah fares well. In 07-08, Garnett averaged 9.2 rebs/game (7.3 defensive), 1.3 blocks/game, and 1.4 steals/game while playing 33 minutes each contest. In comparison Noah averaged 11 rebs/game (7.6 defensively), 1.6 blocks/game, and 0.5 steals per game in only 30 minutes per game in only his third season in the league. Rebounds per game can be affected by the pace of the game a team plays (i.e. there may have been more shots per game in the Bulls' games last season than the Celtics' games in the 07-08 season.) So lets look at the advanced statistics from Basketball-Reference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com/). The statistic is called Defensive Rebound Percentage (DRB%) which measures the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor and helps account for the differences between pace of play and shooting percentages. Noah grabbed 27.6% last year compared to Garnett's 25.1% in 07-08. Garnett was better offensively, and superior in other advanced statistics such as Defensive Win Share and Defensive rating, but my point is that Noah has the potential to thrive in Thibodeau's system just like Garnett did. The new system will help Noah maximize his stats and become a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate and First Team All-Defense next year.

Without Joakim Noah, the Bulls would no longer have the defensive presence to balance out their offensively minded team. In short, Noah is a great fit for the Bulls and replacing him with Kurt Thomas and Carmelo Anthony would not help the Bulls as much as keeping Noah. Luol Deng is nowhere near the player Carmelo is, but he is a mismatch against smaller small forwards and definitely fits as a third option. In the Eastern Conference, the Bulls are going to need Noah to be able guard the likes of Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, Andrew Bogut, and Shaquille O'Neal in order for them to be a true contender for the title. Lord know Carlos Boozer can't guard them, and neither would Kurt Thomas.