Déjà vu all over again

The last time a trio of stars got together on one team was when Lebron took his talents to South Beach to play with D Wade and Chris Bosh. Expectations were high, to say the least. With three players that good, who the hell cared who played point guard and center? The Heat were going to surpass the 72-win record and win multiple championships from day one. Then the season began and everyone’s expectations came back down to earth as we realized that teams need to develop chemistry and learn to play with one another before seeing their win total increase. Jeff Van Gundy famously was quoted as saying the Heat would never lose two games in a row, never lose at home, and would win more than 72 games. After finishing the first month of the season with a Win/Loss record of 9/8 I think he had different thoughts.

You see it takes time for stars to learn how to play with one another and adapt their game to each other in the regular season. In the Olympics and All-Star games (the two types of games that reporters said Wade, James, and Bosh played in that showed they could play together), the players willfully (for the most part) adapt their games because they are either playing for something bigger than themselves (their Country) or are playing in an exhibition that has no bearing on their status (player don’t necessarily even want to play in all-star games; see Karl Malone). But the regular season is different; every missed or made shot, assist or turnover, and every minute played can cost players money. Players’ prime earning years don’t last long, and with the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement, who knows how they will be paid in the future. Also in the season, players worry more about winning and their legacy than they do in all-star games and international competition. Winning is important, but you can’t tell me Lebron, Carmelo, and Wade are losing sleep over the fact that they won a bronze medal in the 2004 winter games or that the East lost the 2009 all-star game by 27 points. They care, but really they really are just trying to play well and not get hurt. The fact that we thought just because Miami’s trio thrived in international play and all-star games meant that they would seamlessly learn how to thrive during the regular season was, in hindsight, foolish (at the time it felt justified!).

During that first month of the season, while the Heat were fighting to stay at .500, reporters, pundits and experts piled on the Heat letting us know how hard it is to build chemistry with new star players. They let us know of the growing pains, especially when the stars styles of play aren’t as complimentary as the Lakers and Celtics’ big stars have been. Some said the Heat had been overrated, but many, like ESPN’s John Hollinger, continued to urge fans to be patient; the Heat still showed signs of being a top team. Just like that, the Heat went on a 12-game winning streak and is currently sitting on the top of their division and second in the Eastern Conference at 21-9 through two months. The Heat-Haters have calmed down in their criticism of the team’s play and many see them as a contender, although most still think when healthy the Lakers and Celtics would beat them in a series. Nonetheless, everyone, myself included, had too high of expectations and also had too harsh of criticism for this team’s playing ability. We simply underestimated the importance and speed of developing chemistry and figuring out how to mesh stars together effectively.

Then, the Orlando Magic made two blockbuster trades that shook up their starting lineup and gave them their own version of a star-studded lineup. If Miami is a group of three superstars, Orlando has a group of 4 quasi-stars. Dwight Howard and Gilbert Arenas are or were at one point bona fide stars in this league. Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson are players who statistically look like stars and have routinely been considered for all-star games in the past. Orlando’s four lacks the star power that Boston, LA and Miami’s core groups have, but they are obviously one of the most talented rosters in the league, on paper. Arenas is a 3-time all-star, most improved player (02-03), 3-time all-NBA teamer, and finished top-five in scoring average for three seasons. Howard is the best big man in the game. Richardson and Nelson round out the foursome strongly.

When these trades went down, many thought that the Magic would do better than they had been by replacing Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, and Mickael Pietrus with Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu especially was expected to rediscover the skills he lost when he left Orlando after their Finals appearance. So far, post-trade results have been lacking. The Magic are 0-2 losing to the Mavericks (a team that may be playing the best of any in the league right now) and indefensibly losing by 10 to the Atlanta Hawks (a team who the Magic dominated during the playoffs last season). Keep in mind all of the lessons we learned with Miami. Chemistry takes time to develop; it’s not just the top names on your team that matter; players who are used to playing with the ball take time to adjust their games. I was expecting the media and “experts” to show a little more patience this time. I was mistaken. Again we are hearing that the Magic are no longer a contender, and that by trading half of their starting lineup, they ruined chemistry and messed with a contender midseason. That may be true, but I doubt it.

First off, look at the players the Magic acquired from the Suns: Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson. Think of the difference in playing styles they are experiencing. In Phoenix, Richardson averaged 17.6 shots per 36 minutes and registered a Usage% of 25.3 (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.) In his two games in Orlando, Richardson is averaging 10.8 shots per 36 minutes and a Usage% of 14.6 (-6.8 shots per game and -10.7% in plays used per game). That is a big difference in playing style. Turkoglu’s difference is less pronounced probably because he played less in Phoenix, and when in the game, he was used very similarly as he is in Orlando. If we look at stats Per 36 minutes, Turkoglu is averaging 3.7 shots per game less and a 2.2% decrease in Usage% in Orlando. The other adjustment these two Suns players have to make is going from playing with a legendary point guard and no big men in Phoenix to playing with an average point guard and elite center that the offense revolves around in Orlando. They also have to adjust from playing in the 6th fastest offense in the league according to its Pace Rating to the 19th fastest offense in the league in Orlando.

Arenas is also making a pretty big adjustment. Through two games, Gilbert is playing 12.6 minutes less per game, averaging 2.5 shots less per 36 minutes, and a decrease in Usage% from 26.3 to 25.1 (less drastic due to the fact that he serves as the instant offense when in the game in Orlando and is expected to “use” plays when in the game as he is the point guard and focal point of the bench unit.) Arenas is also going from playing with Andray Blatche and Javale McGee as his starting frontcourt.

For these reasons, it is important to give the Magic some time to gel before writing them off. Especially because any team that has Dwight Howard in the middle will be a contender. Howard has a Usage% of 28.9% this season (9th in the league). This number will not change drastically even with the new toys the Magic acquired. The rest of the team will have to adjust to the fact that they will no longer be the focal point of the offense. It all starts with the best center in the game, the guards will get their shots, but they may inconsistently get them. They have to realize that, and work on becoming more efficient with less touches and shots. Efficiency is something the new acquisitions have struggled with so far as they are learning when to shoot and are most likely nervous about messing up what Stan Van Gundy and the Magic have established so far. Arenas is shooting 17.6%, Richardson is shooting 33.3%, and Turkoglu is shooting 20% so far for the Magic. I highly doubt these three will continue to struggle so mightily. So let’s remember what happened with the Heat (who I think had to adjust less than Orlando as Wade, Lebron, and Bosh play with much inferior supporting cast than the Magic and thus haven’t had to sacrifice as much), and give Orlando some time before we send them to the Lottery. In the end, they should be on the short list of title contenders this season and beyond. At the very least, they have more of a shot now than they did with Vince and Rashard limping up and down the court.