1) Miami Heat*
2) Chicago Bulls*
3) Boston Celtics*
4) Orlando Magic
5) Milwaukee Bucks
6) Atlanta Hawks
7) New York Knicks
8) Philadelphia 76ers
*Denotes Division Winner
Atlantic Division
1) Boston Celtics *Division Winner
Key Additions: Shaquille O’Neal, Jermaine O’Neal, Delonte West, Avery Bradley (R)
Key Subtractions: Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen
By far the favorite of the Division, the Celtics are the only team that will be a viable contender to make the NBA finals from the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are one year older, one year slower (with the exception of Rondo) but they are still as hungry as ever. The Celtics will most likely work hard to secure a top four seed in the East, but that will be about it. After last season we know that they can turn it on in the postseason when necessary, and with a starting lineup with consisting of aging vets I anticipate this strategy recurring in ’10-’11.
Player to Watch: Rajon Rondo
Look for Rajon Rondo to continue to improve on his mid-range jumpshot, and lead this team throughout the regular season schedule as the only starter with young legs. But, if Rondo goes down (which is possible after logging tons of minutes in the playoffs and not having the whole summer off due to FIBA) expect the Celtics to struggle with Nate Robinson, Delonte West and Avery Bradley as their backup point guards.. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and the O’Neal’s do not have the stamina to play heavy minutes in the regular season without hindering their chances to challenge the Heat and Magic in the postseason.
Outlook:
I expect the Celtics to win 50+ games, win the Atlantic Division, and lock up 3rd place in the Eastern Conference and avoid the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. They obviously are the class of this division, however I do see them exiting in the second round of the playoffs to the Heat. Rondo would have to improve this season as much as he did last season in order for me to project them any higher. Another interesting storyline will be whether the Celtics’ defense will be as impressive with Kendrick Perkins gone for the first half of the season and Tom Thibodeau coaching in Chicago.
2) New York Knicks *Dark Horse Team
Key Addition – Amare Stoudemire, Raymond Felton,Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azebuike, Roger Mason, Timofey Mozgov, Andy Rautins (R), Landry Fields (R)
Key Losses – David Lee, Chris Duhon
After striking out on Wade and Lebron, the Knicks salvaged their free-agent haul by acquiring Amare Stoudemire in a sign-and-trade with Phoenix for 5-years/$100 million. That may be overpaying someone who struggles with defensive intensity, rebounding, and health. Luckily, in coach Mike D’Antoni’s system, Amare doesn’t have to worry about defense. If Stoudemire’s knees can stay intact (the main reason Phoenix wouldn’t give him a max deal), this signing will accomplish what it set out to: making the Knicks watchable and competitive and giving them an identity and marketable star for one of the NBA’s biggest markets. The rest of the additions should help the Knicks increase their win total as well. Raymond Felton is a huge upgrade over last year’s point guards Chris Duhon and Toney Douglas. He will obviously benefit from D’antoni’s system and I expect him to have a career year in all statistical categories due to the inflated numbers that come from the 7 Seconds or Less system.
Player to watch: Amare Stoudemire
If he gets injured (3/8 years of 55 games or less), the Knicks will be hard to watch and be in the Lottery next season. Felton will be a decent second banana, but Amare has to perfrom at an all-star/MVP level for the team to win games. As long as he is healthy, his reunion with D’Antoni will be fun to watch and result in huge numbers for the 100 million dollar man.
Outlook:
The rumor mill has been flooded with information pertaining to the Knicks making progress in obtaining Carmelo Anthony in a trade this season. The main reason may be that Carmelo will not sign a long-term deal with anyone but the Knicks. Other reasons include Danilo Galinari’s preseason struggles have taken him off the Nuggets wish-list (the Knicks were hesitant to include him in earlier trades); The Knicks will be able to obtain a first round pick to send to Denver; There may be a third team involved that would send a player to the Nuggets that they would want; and lastly, Denver is realizing that they need to get rid of Carmelo fast as George Karl has been unable to convince the star to sign a contract extension. If the Knicks can execute the trade and bring Carmelo to New York, I think this guarantees that they will be a playoff team this year but not a contender. They would probably finish with high 40’s to low 50’s in the Win column. This would be a huge story, and expect the national media to spend many hours detailing the return of the Knicks. Stoudemire, Anthony, Felton, Chandler, and Mozgov/Turiaf is a starting lineup that has some tremendous offensive potential in D’Antoni’s system. They would be a good regular season team, but fall short in the playoffs like all of D’Antoni’s run and gun teams have in the past.
3) Philadelphia 76ers
Key Additions – Evan Turner (R), Craig Brackins (R),Spencer Hawes, Andres Nocioni
Key Losses – Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green (I use “Key” Liberally), Jason Smith
My hometown team had a decent offseason by unloading Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green, and Jason Smith in return for Spencer Hawes, Andres Nocioni, and Craig Brackins. All three of these players are underrated, and should help the 76ers improve over last season with Doug Collins at the helm. They also got lucky with receiving the 2nd pick, however they used it on Evan Turner. At the time it wasn’t a bad pick as Turner was the Naismith Player of the Year last season and was the consensus #2 pick and a solid character on and off the court. It also helped that he almost averaged a triple double in conference play last season. However, after struggling through summer league and the preseason, Turner may already be in Collins’ doghouse and Philly fans are already wishing they had taken Demarcus Cousins who looks like he will average a double-double from day one.
Player to Watch: Jrue Holiday
The youngest player in the league last year, Holiday, showed that he could be a starting point guard in this league for years to come. By all accounts, Holiday has worked hard to improve in the offense, so much so that new coach Doug Collins claimed that Holiday would be a top 5 point guard in this league. While I don’t necessarily agree with Collins, especially this year, I do see some great potential in the youngster. First off, Holiday is a big physical point guard with exceptional defensive talents. Secondly, he is the Sixers only decent 3-point shooter in the starting lineup, shooting at a 39.1% clip last season. Lastly, Holiday has had a great summer and preseason. In summer league, Holiday showed an increased aggressiveness and point guard skills to the point that he was one of the best players in the Orlando League. Thus far in preseason, Holiday struggled out of the gate, but has performed much better as of late including a triple double (18pts, 11 rebs, 12 assists) against the Raptors that showed just how versatile Holiday can be. If Jrue develops significantly, that can reduce the pressure on Iguodala to carry the team and help the 76ers and their fans have hope.
Outlook:
Although this team is weak up front, I still think they will finish right at .500 and have a shot at the 8th seed in the playoffs. I think this for two reasons. First, The two season prior to the horrendous Eddie Jordan experience, the 76ers finished right at .500. I expect Doug Collins to develop a game plan more tailored to the personnel and their collective strengths: running the break with Holiday, Lou Williams, Igoudala, Thaddeus Young, and Evan Turner. This team is built to run, and Jordan’s motion offense really stifled the Sixers’ development. The second reason the team will fight to make the playoffs is because of Doug Collins. This is his 4th head coaching gig, and in his first three (Chicago, Detroit, Washington) Collins improved his team’s record by an average of 15.3 wins per season (10, 18, 18 respectively). He does this by emphasizing defense, and being a renowned taskmaster on his players. If Collins can improve the Sixers record by 15 games from last year, that would bring their record to 42-40; a .500 record should still get you in the playoffs this year in the East.
4) New Jersey Nets
Key Additions: Troy Murphy, Derrick Favors (R), Travis Outlaw, Anthony Morrow, Jordan Farmar, Damion James (R), Avery Johnson (Coach)
Key Subtractions: Courtney Lee, Chris Douglas Roberts, Yi Jianlian, Keyon Dooling
The biggest addition the Nets may have scored this offseason is at Head Coach. The 2005-2006 NBA Coach of the Year has a career winning percentage of .735 and has never won less than 51 games in a full season. These numbers were achieved with a strong Dallas Mavericks team with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Josh Howard, however, Avery has shown that he is an impactful coach in this league. Avery Johnson replaced Don Nelson and improved the Mavericks’ Defensive Rating from 26th in the league in 03-04 to 11th in 05-06 and 5th in 06-07. Despite losing to the Warriors as a 1 seed in the 06-07 playoffs, Avery still coached that team to a 67-15 record and fell victim to Don Nelson knowing how to dismantle the team he helped build. Johnson loves to plays a slower paced game and will look to utilize budding start Brook Lopez in the low post, and new addition Troy Murphy in the high post to offset the penetration of Devin Harris at point guard on offense. Also new additions Anthony Morrow, Jordan Farmar, and Travis Outlaw will provide some offensive firepower and shooting prowess to a Nets team that only won 12 games last season.
Player to Watch: Devin Harris
Who is the real Devin Harris? In the 08-09 season, Harris averaged 21.3 pts, 6.9 assists, and 8.8 free throw attempts per game and was named an Eastern Conference All-Star. In 09-10, Harris reverted back to his previous production levels (coincidentally under Avery Johnson) of 16.9 pts, 6.6 assists, and 6.0 free throw attempts per game. His PER fell from 21.6 – 16.2, his ORtg fell from 113 – 103, and his Win Shares fell from 7.5 – 2.7. We are talking about going from being one of the better point guards in the league (3rd in PER in 08-09) to being an average starting point guard (22nd in PER in 09-10 just behind Jarret Jack). Which player will show up for this season? I think that he will be somewhere in the middle and average 18 pts and 6 assists a game. The key will be whether he regains his aggressiveness in driving to the hoop. According to Hoopsdata, Harris attempted 39% of his field goals inside the paint on 08-09 and only 34% in 09-10. If Harris can drive and kick to the Nets new perimeter shooters Anthony Morrow and Troy Murphy and find his big men Lopez and Favors, the Nets may be able to improve dramatically from last season.
Outlook:
The Nets are probably a few years away from being a contender (unless they can score Carmelo Anthony in a trade), however if everything goes right for them they could come close to tripling their win total from last year and finishing with a record of 36-46. I think Avery will definitely help improve the Nets’ defense and instill a work ethic and competitiveness in this young team. They remind me somewhat of the Charlotte Bobcats last season due to the fact that the addition of a quality coach with a good strategy may be able to help them sneak in the playoffs. If nothing else, the Nets will have hope, and right now, that is all a Nets fan can ask for.
5) Toronto Raptors
Key Additions – Leandro Barbosa, Linas Kleiza, Julian Wright, Ed Davis (R)
Key Losses – Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu (again using “key” LIBERALLY),
Outlook:
Without Chris Bosh, the Raptors will be in the basement of the division and a favorite to win the lottery next season. They are without a go-to player, a strategy, and a defensive/rebounding presence. Andrea Bargnani will be allowed to shoot whenever he wants and convince us that the number 1 pick used on him wasn’t such a bad decision. I just don’t think that he will.
Player to Watch:
No one, try not to watch the Raptors.
Central Division:
1) Chicago Bulls
Key Additions – Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Kurt Thomas, Omer Asik (R), Tom Thibodeau (Coach)
Key Losses – Kirk Hinrich, Hakim Warrick.
Player to Watch: Joakim Noah
I’m not going to rehash my whole previous post on why the Bulls shouldn’t and didn’t trade Noah for Carmelo. In short, Noah is the biggest challenger to Dwight Howard when it comes to the Defensive Player of the Year award. He is the energy that makes this team go, and Tom Thibodeau will make him an even better defender and the focal point of his defensive scheme.
Outlook:
I expect the Bulls to win 55+ games even without Boozer for the first couple months of the season. Taj Gibson showed last season he can be an effective starter, and Derrick Rose can assume the load offensively. The improved defense will be responsible for this increase. The Bulls will be fighting the Magic and Celtics for one of the top 4 seeds in the East.
2) Milwaukee Bucks
Key Additions: Drew Gooden, Corey Maggette, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Earl Boykins,Keyon Dooling, Jon Brockman, Larry Sanders (R)
Key Losses: Luke Ridnour, Charlie Bell, Dan Gadzuric
I like the additions the small-market Bucks made this year to improve their team. This team has a shot to challenge for a top-4 seed in the East if Brandon Jennings develops by shooting a higher percentage, increasing assists, and decreasing turnovers. The Bucks also are very dependent on Andrew Bogut. This would be okay except the Aussie can’t seem to stay healthy. After his freak elbow injury last season, it will be interesting to see if he can continue to play as he did last season. As long as he is healthy and able to block shots and steady the team defensively, the Bucks will be a strong team. They have added depth at PF, SF, and SG and will be one of the deeper teams in the league. Maggette and Salmons are two accomplished scorers that love to get to the free throw line. This will allow Jennings to improve his shot selection and become more of a pass-first point guard.
Player to Watch: Brandon Jennings
If Jennings can become more efficient this year shooting the ball, expect the Bucks offensive rating to shoot up. Jennings shot a wretched 37.1 % from the field last season and had the worst shooting percentage in the league for shots at the basket (39.1), second worst in shooting percentage for two-pointers overall. This needs to improve for the Bucks to increase their points per game which ranked 23/30 last season at 97.7 ppg. If Jennings can play a more composed and efficient game and the Bucks can continue to defend well (2nd in the league in Defensive Rating), other teams will start fearing the deer.
Outlook:
I think the Bucks will end up finishing second in the division and 5th in the Conference. They are definitely a well-coached team and have an improved roster from last year. However, they don’t have the star power to match up with the Heat, Magic, Bulls, or Celtics, and they are one Bogut injury away from barely making the playoffs. Due to the fact that Bogut has missed an average of 17.8 games a year in his 5 year career and that there are still concerns over the recovery of his elbow, I will have to temper the expectations for the Bucks.
3) Indianapolis Pacers
Key Additions – Darren Collison, James Posey, Paul George (R), Lance Stephenson (R), Magnum Rolle (R)
Key Losses – Troy Murphy, Earl Watson
Player to Watch: Roy Hibbert
Hibbert was got treatment for Asthma over the offseason and also worked hard to drop 15-20 pounds in order to keep up with Jim O’Brien’s fast-paced offense. The work seems to have paid off, he has looked like a beast in preseason (17.5 pts, 9.7 rebs, 2.2 blks, 3.3 assists per game.)
Outlook:
The Pacers have some solid young players with potential but will fall into the lottery again after this season.
4) Detroit Pistons
Key Additions – Greg Monroe (R), Tracy McGrady, Terrico White (R)
Key Losses – None
Player to Watch: Ben Gordon
After a terrible season last year, it will be interesting to see whether Gordon lives up to the contract Joe Dumars extended to him last season. With the logjam the Pistons have a shooting guard, it will be difficult for Gordon to improve dramatically over last season.
Outlook:
The Pistons spent franchise player money on role players (Villanueva, Gordon, Richard Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince) who haven’t produced. They have some nice young pieces in Austin Daye, Monroe, Jerebko, Stuckey, and White but with the well-paid veterans on the roster, it may be difficult for them to get the minutes they need to develop the team for the long-term.
5) Cleveland Cavaliers
Key Additions - Ramon Sessions, Kyle Lowry, Christian Eyenga, Ryan Hollins, Joey Graham, Jawad Williams, Samuardo Samuels,
Key Losses – Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal, Zydruanas Ilgauskas, Delonte West
Player to Watch: J.J. Hickson
He should be a Most Improved Player candidate and may win the award in attempt to keep Cleveland fans from jumping off a cliff. He has looked great whenever he was given time and should average close to a double double as the unquestioned starter at power forward.
Outlook:
Sorry Cavs fans, the good days are over. When Hickson and Mo Williams are your best players, that spells a long season. Good luck in the lottery, maybe you can hit the lotto and win the rights to UNC’s Harrison Barnes next year.
Southeast Division:
1) Miami Heat
Key Additions – Lebron James, Chris Bosh, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, Eddie House, Jamaal Magloire, Dexter Pittman (R), Jarvis Varnado (R)
Key Losses – Michael Beasley, Jermaine O’Neal, Daequan Cook, Dorell Wright, Quentin Richardson
If you read this blog, you know that I think the Heat are the class of the East. I’m not going to waste everyone’s time with an in-depth preview of the team. If you don’t know everything about them by now, you have been living under a rock. The team has their own ESPN website and had a welcome party in South Beach that beat attendance numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays. I love the team, and I expect them to win the East by a considerable margin.
2) Orlando Magic
Key Additions – Chris Duhon, Quentin Richardson
Key Losses – Matt Barnes, More of Vince Carter’s Athleticism
The Magic essentially stood pat while the rest of the contenders in the East bolstered their rosters with impact players. For some teams, like the Thunder last season, that can work and pay off. However for the Magic, it is a riskier proposition. Their roster doesn't contain as much potential at each posision like the Thunder's did. Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, and even Jameer Nelson regressed signicantly last year. Nelson is the only one with a reasonable percentage of rebounding from his slump; Lewis and Carter will most likely get worse. An increased role for J.J. Redick, and Brandon Bass may be the answer to the declining skill of Lewis and Carter. If those two, especially Redick, can contribute like they did in the playoffs last season, the Magic will be able to achieve a top-3 record in the East.
Player to Watch: Dwight Howard
Seriously, watch this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mArHU1ewSog). Everything in the preceding paragraph can be nullified if Superman can implement what he learned this summer from Hakeem Olajuwon. Howard excels when matched against inferior physical talent most nights. This allows him to bully his way to the basket and get an assortment of dunks and layups. However, as we saw last year, when confronted with defenders who match him in size and strength, Howard struggles. And when teams don't have to double team Dwight, that cuts down on the open threes for the supporting cast that makes the Magic so deadly. If the Magic want to improve this season, look to see whether Dwight can add solid post moves to offensive repertoire; if he does, the Magic could get back to the NBA finals.
Outlook:
It's a shame that Orlando is in the same conference as Miami. While I think the Magic is a team that could beat the Heat due to Miami's lack of interior defense, I don't think they will finish with a better regular season record than them. This means that they will be stuck in the four seed in the East instead of their customary top-3 in the past couple seasons. I think the Magic are more of a contender than the Bulls this season to represent the East, but if they have to face the Celtics in the playoffs, I don't think they will make it through. With Shaq and kendrick Perkins able to body Howard, the Celtics will be able to eliminate the Magic from contention unless Dwight unleashes the Dream Shake on the league.
3) Atlanta Hawks
Key Additions – Josh Powell, Jordan Crawford (R), Larry Drew (Coach)
Key Losses – Josh Childress
Another boring offseason for the Hawks. Like the Magic, Atlanta essentially stood pat as they didn't lose any major contriutors, but also didn't gain any. The main difference will be on the bench with rookie head coach Larry Drew taking over the reins from Mike Woodson after an embarrassing 2nd round exit from the postseason at the hands of the Magic. Coach Drew is installing a motion offense as opposed to the isolation and slow-paced attack Mike Woodson ran the past few years. i would expect an adjustment period, and it is within the realm of possibility that the veterans on the team don't buy into the new scheme. Josh Smith has never exactly been a coach pleaser. If Smith and Al Horford along with my player to watch can all improve while Joe Johnson continues to play at an all-star level, the Hawks will be a playoff team.
Player to Watch: Jeff Teague
Larry Drew and the Hawks brass have to to be praying that Teague can take over for the relic that is Mike Bibby at some point this season. Bibby has turned into a stand still shooter and defensive liability at this point. The Hawks went out and hired former point guard Nick Van Exel in the offseason to help Teague develop as a point guard and find his "dog" (aggressiveness for those unaware). Looking at last year's per 36 minute statistics, Teague shows potential as he averaged 11.4 pts, 6.1 assists, 3.4 rebs, and 1.7 steals. The main issue with Teague last season was a terrible shooting percentage. He only shot 39.6% from the field and 21.9% from three. If Teague finds his inner dog and that dog improves his field goal percentage, Teague could be a breakout player and provide the shot in the arm that the front office failed to provide in the offseason. In one game during this preseason (before an ankle injury), Teague scored 20 points on 8/13 shooting, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Taht is the type of impact coach Larry Drew has to hope for, or the Hawks will have a season that brings them back to reality.
Outlook:
I have Atlanta finishing a few games over .500 and securing the 6th seed in the East. This would have been great for the franchise 3 years ago, but now it will be a great disappointment. Especially after they signed Joe Johnson to a 6-year $120 million deal that will not allow them to make any splashes in free agency over the enxt six years. This team will have to continue to make solid draft picks and develop them from within or they will not be a playoff team in this conference much longer.
4) Charlotte Bobcats
Key Additions – Shaun Livingston, Eduardo Najera, Kwame Brown
Key Losses – Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler, Alexis Ajinca
Writing about the Bobcats is like writing about vanilla ice cream, its boring. The Bobcats will have another year of Larry Brown coaching them. They made no major moves this offseason and lost significant pieces to the team that made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last season. I could bore you with more about this team, but it comes down to it, if the Bobcats regress defensively at all (1st overall in pts allowed per game at 93.8 and 1st overall in defensive rating last season), they will again find themselves in the lottery as they don't have the offensive firepower to make up for any increase in points allowed. By losing Felton and Chandler they have inserted D.J. Augustin and Nazr Mohammed. That is not a recipe for success. I expect them to finish with a win total in the low to mid 30's.
5) Washington Wizards
Key Additions – John Wall (R),Kirk Hinrich, Yi Jianlian, Hilton Armstrong, Kevin Seraphim (R), Trevor Booker (R)
Key Losses – Mike Miller, Randy Foye, James Singleton, Quinton Ross
The Wizards are relevant this season solely because of John Wall and the excitement he brings to the arena on a nightly basis. However, I just can't see Wall being able to carry this team to a respectable record, which is fine. Washington needs to be in the lottery to get more talent and provide Wall with some running mates. With Gilbert Arenas' 4-year $80 million remaining contract on the books, the Wizards won't be players in free agency for a few more years. The division and conference is too strong for the Wizards to compete. I do, however, expect John Wall to revive basketball in Washington, and lets hope that the biggest thing for the Wizards this year is that they successfully start the process to change their name back to the Bullets.
No comments:
Post a Comment