Is the Heat on in Miami?

After watching last night’s game in full (on DVR until 12:15 thanks to a playoff basketball game of my own, that’s dedication!), I have definitely learned a couple things about my NBA favorite Miami Heat. Many were underwhelmed and let down with the Heat’s performance, myself included. The Lebron haters could not have been happier with this performance. It is important to temper both pessimistic and optimistic views of what the Heat will do this season.

Let’s start with reasons to be pessimistic:

1) Erik Spoelstra = Mike Brown

Everyone thought that Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra would change his philosophy offensively to fit his new weapons and play at a faster pace than in previous seasons. Most also thought that he would be a superior coach to Mike Brown solely because he would allow Lebron to finally get out on the break and show off his freight-train like ability to get to the basket. We may have spoken too soon.

It is only one game, against the Boston Celtics who also like to play slow (22nd out of 30 teams in pace last season – pace measures the number of possessions per 48 minutes for a team), however Miami had a pace rating of 89.5 which is extremely low (it would have ranked 27th out of 30 last season.) Part of me wants to believe that this was just a byproduct of the Celtics excellent defense and slow pace themselves, but Erik Spoelstra has run slow offenses historically. In 2008-2009, the Heat had a pace rating of 89.9 (22/30), and in 2009-2010 the Heat had a pace rating of 89.6. This pace is even slower than the Cavs’ pace last season of 91.4 which caused every expert to question why Brown didn’t push the ball and eventually had a role in his firing. Maybe this is just how Spoelstra prefers his team to play or maybe it is how Lebron prefers to play, but this year’s team will be at its best when it is running in the fast break with Wade and James with Chris Bosh trailing. They simply do not have the components necessary to have an effective half court offense.

The thing that scared me about watching the Heat on offense last night is that is how similar the sets looked to Mike Brown’s sets last year. The Heat slowed it down consistently and ran the high pick-and-roll with Lebron as the ball handler most of the time. That is exactly what I thought would be left in Cleveland. Lebron is best with the ball in his hands no doubt, but the half-court offense cannot just consist of Lebron holding the ball and taking jump shots at the end of the 24-second clock. Lebron shot his jumper at a high percentage last night (50% from 16 feet and out), but it does not seem logical to settle for perimeter jump shots when you have two of the best penetrators in the league on the same team. The Heat needs to learn how to get easy buckets in the half-court, and until they do, they need to push the tempo and get as many fast break points as possible before opposing defenses can clog the paint.

2) Lack of chemistry between the big three

Again, part of this is probably because we just haven’t given the Celtics enough credit for still being the best defensive team in the league. However, I thought that having 2 of the top 5 and 3 of the top 15 players in the league would translate into offensive efficiency, alleys oops, back door cuts and the like against any and all competitors. We learned last night that no matter how good the Miami Thrice is individually, they all need to sacrifice and decide how they work best as a team. In my opinion, the Heat’s offense was almost preordained on each possession. One time down, Lebron would decide he was going to shoot, the next Wade would get the ball and Bosh would get whatever scraps he could. Like I said before, Lebron at least produced by making shots. Wade looked particularly bad. Every time he got the ball I felt like he was trying to prove to me that he was still “the man” and would jack up an ill-conceived shot. Way too many out of control drives and contested jumpers for D-Wade. Furthermore, Wade failed to move well without the ball which was a concern prior to the season. He needs to figure out when to cut and how to get effective shots without being able to handle the ball as much. Lebron runs the team now, and Wade needs to adjust. The two lacked chemistry in every phase of the game whether it was Lebron throwing a pass behind Wade after he cut, or Lebron failing to get the ball to Wade out in front of him on the fast break play where Pierce took the charge that was called in Lebron’s favor. Like Wade, I felt Bosh had similar symptoms of trying to prove to everyone that he belonged. It seemed as though he shot the ball almost every time he touched it, and he took way too many perimeter jump shots with Garnett right in his face. Will the lack of chemistry be a prolonged issue, or will these three stars adjust quickly to benefit the team? Pessimists would say that these three players had 3 of the top 10 usage percentages last season (stat the measure the percentage of possessions a player uses/takes a shot) and that they only know how to play with the ball in their hands. The bad habits they have learned will be tougher to break than we thought. One thing is for sure, 15 turnovers between the big three will not cut it if the Heat wants to win a title.

Now here are the optimistic reasons:

1) They played the Celtics in Boston in the first game of the year after only playing limited minutes together in preseason, and only lost by 8.

This is definitely something for the Heat to hang their hat on. The announcers kept saying it was a “playoff atmosphere” in the Garden and the intensity was high. Let’s jump forward to the playoffs; if the Heat lost by 8 in Boston in a playoff series we would not be astounded or amazed. In playoff games (which last night apparently had the atmosphere of one) between two good teams, the home team is supposed to have the advantage. It’s not like the Heat got dominated by 20, they lost by 8, and if Lebron made a better play defensively at the end of the game when Allen ran of the baseline screens for the open three, it would have been an even closer game. The Celtics were 9-3 at home in the postseason last year, plus they had the motivation of opening the season against the Heat and showing the world that they are still the team to beat in the East. Feeling disrespected can be a huge motivator for a team and there is no doubt that Garnett and Shaq were definitely playing a few years younger last night. It will be interesting to see if the Celtics keep up the enthusiasm and effort, or if they coast through the regular season like last year and then turn it up in the postseason. The most telling quote was after the game when Craig Sager asked Rajon Rondo if the Heat were still the team to beat in the East. Rondo responded with a smirk “Nah, I think we are the team,” and ran off.

When all is said and done, the Heat rebounded from a 9 point first quarter and a 30 point first half to make the game competitive and even be within three points at one juncture. They did this despite a hostile Boston crowd that serenaded Lebron with “boos” every time he touched the ball. Miami definitely didn’t impress in game 1, but they also were much more competitive than many other teams would be in a similar situation and had a chance to steal the game.

2) The Heat’s defense looked good; not every team defends like the Celtics

Let’s start with the Heat’s defense. They were good, but not great. They held the Celtics to 46% shooting which is mediocre. The Heat and Celtics both hit 8 threes but the Celtics did it on 16 attempts while it took Miami 20 attempts. This is indicative of the fact that Boston has a plethora of options in the post to dump the ball down to. In the words of Charles Barkley, they get easy buckets. And that matters, Shaq, Garnett, Jermaine O’Neal, Big Baby, and Pierce all excel on the post and get them easy buckets. It also helps when you have a point guard who can slice and dice a defense like Rondo can (17 assists). Put these two factors together and you have the recipe for a good half court offense, especially when you add Ray Allen doing his Reggie Miller impression to get wide open threes. The Celtics just have so many weapons. That being said, the Heat definitely showed the ability to cause turnovers and block shots last night. Wade, Lebron and company forced 18 turnovers had 10 steals and blocked 6 shots last night. They need to continue this effort if they want to transition to a more fast-paced offense and continue to excel on defense. If they can improve their offensive efficiency by getting easier shots (like the Celtics did), they will become the contender I believe that they are. Just as an illustration, last night 46 out of Miami’s 74 field goal attempts were from longer than 10 feet (62%). The Celtics in contrast only shot 33 out of their 69 field goals from outside of 10 feet (47%). No wonder the Celtics shot a better percentage and won.

The Heat should be able to get easier shots against teams that are not as exceptional defensively as the Celtics are. This is a team with a point guard that led the league in steals per game last season, a power forward who won the Defensive Player of the Year award 2 years ago, and some serious beef at center with Shaquille commanding the paint. Add in Paul Pierce’s ability to frustrate Lebron and the poise and savvy of Ray Allen, and you have a team that will easily finish in the top 5 in defense this season. If the Heat struggle tonight with the 76ers, then we can begin to worry a little bit more. But as of now, this is just a case of a team with a lot of talent who hasn’t played together getting beaten by a team with a lot of talent who has played together for 3 seasons and made the finals twice. Give the Heat some time to gel. I think it will be a rarity for Dwayne Wade to play as bad as he did Tuesday. I still stand by my statement that they will finish as the best team in the East record-wise, however I now am somewhat doubtful in their ability to beat a team like Boston in the playoffs.