Who should win:
Kevin Durant (SF – OKC)
Surprise, surprise…This had become the trendy pick after Durant's flat-out world domination in the FIBA World Basketball Championship this summer. The tournament allowed him to showcase his unbelievable scoring ability while reassuring the world that he can be the type of team leader and clutch player that so far Lebron has not been.
The MVP Voters tend to be a year late on who should win the Award. Durant probably should have received the award last year after he lead the Thunder from a 23-59 season to a 50-32 season. The development of Durant was primarily responsible for the increase of 27 games in the win column as the Thunder did not add any significant pieces (except maybe James Harden) from '08 to '09. We know that Durant is the youngest player to ever win a scoring championship, and he averaged an impressive 30.1 pts, 7.6 rebs, 2.8 assts, 1.4 stls, and 1 block a game. He also shot 36.5% from three and 90% from the free throw line on a league-leading 840 attempts. With a summer of hard work and international seasoning, Durant should be poised to average upwards of 32 pts, 8.5 rebs, 3.5 assts, 1.8 stls, and 1.4 blks a game. As I watched the FIBA tournament, it was apparent that Durant is learning how to use his length to block more perimeter jump shots by opposing wings and to read passing lanes better. Furthermore, I expect the Thunder to end up in the top three teams in the West, which combined with OKC's increasing number of televised games, should give Durant a great shot at winning MVP and completing his ascent to true superstar status in his 4th year.
Who will win:
Kobe Bryant (SG – LAL)
There are two reasons why Kobe will win the MVP Award in the '10 – '11 season: history and pride.
1. History .
I know that the MVP award is for the preceding season and not a career achievement award. However, in this case, voters may want to rectify the mistake(s) they made in handing out 2 MVP awards to Steve Nash and one to Dirk Nowitzki, while Kobe, sitting with 5 titles and superior statistics, only has one. Let's keep in mind that the voters for MVP are writers and broadcasters who revel in historical comparisons and cherish the history of the game. ESPN and the powers that be would love nothing more than to have more ammunition for when Stu Scott inevitably compared Kobe to Michael Jordan during the playoffs and finals. Kobe is the closest thing the NBA has had to MJ since he retired, but yet as you can see above Kobe compares in every category except for MVP's. This phenomenon will pressure the voters to award Kobe; unless Durant has such a dominant season that he cannot be ignored. The press is going to start to realize that Kobe is entering the top 5 scorers in NBA history but yet Steve Nash has more MVP's than him. Nothing against Nash, but Kobe is the better player.
There is a precedent for this type of "well, player-X is a great player and should have won an MVP award in previous seasons but he didn't, so let's give it to him now" type of award. Look at the '96-'97 season. Karl Malone won the award over Michael Jordan despite not a) leading his team to a better record than Jordan, and b) not averaging a double-double in points and rebounds (something that every PF/C MVP winner has done since 1955 except for the aforementioned Nowitzki.) Malone won this award essentially because voters were tired of voting for MJ, and Malone was reaching what many thought was the twilight of his career (age 33) without a championship or an MVP award.
2. Kobe's Pride
Kobe Bryant is one of the most prideful and competitive players in NBA history. How do I know this? Because Mike Breen has beaten it into my brain over the past two playoffs; also Kobe has proven it with the development of his snarling face. It's safe to say that a combination of the media attention on Lebron's Decision, predictions of Miami's dominance, and the anointing of Kevin Durant as the world's best basketball player have made Kobe focus on proving everyone wrong and bringing the attention back to him and the reigning champion Lakers.
Kobe as a competitor is the closest thing we have seen to Jordan. Much like Jordan, Kobe keeps track of perceived slights, and pushes himself to humiliate and prove naysayers wrong. The stories of Jordan humiliating perceived rivals are legendary. During dream team practices in 1992, columnists were creating a rivalry between Jordan and Clyde Drexler. Jordan took it upon himself to dominate and embarrass Drexler every chance he got, including in Dream Team practices to prove that the Glyde was no rival. This is how Kobe is, incredibly observant and incredibly determined to prove the so-called experts wrong.
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