Alas, my return (hopefully triumphant) to the blogosphere. One of the biggest NBA stories over the last month, besides Kevin Durant's domination of the World Championships, has been the trade demands of Carmelo Anthony and the game of chicken taking place out west in Denver. The Nuggets have offered Carmelo a 3-year/$65 million contract. As of now, 'Melo has elected not to sign the extension and is demanding a trade out of Denver. Because Anthony has an opt-out clause in his current contract after this season, only teams that he is willing to sign a long-term deal with are willing to trade for him. Those teams include the Clippers, Nets, Rockets, Knicks, and Bulls. Teams that may be able to give the Nuggets the best combination of picks and talent will not want to make the offer if they think Carmelo would not sign back with them. No one wants to set their team back for the next few years for a one-year rental. So we are left with the list of teams that Carmelo has given the Nuggets to find the best deal.
Of all the teams listed above, Carmelo playing with the Chicago Bulls is the most intriguing possibility for NBA fans. After and impressive offseason haul of Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and Kurt Thomas, landing Carmelo would be icing on the cake. A big three of Derek Rose, Boozer, and Anthony would certainly challenge the star power of the Miami Thrice in the East and allow the Bulls to have their best shot at a championship since #23 turned in the Nikes for golf cleats.
The problem with the Carmelo to the Bulls deal is that the Bulls have balked at the idea of giving up starting center Joakim Noah for the perennial all-star and offensive prodigy Anthony. The deal the Nuggets would be asking for is Anthony for the trio of Noah, Luol Deng, and the project that is James Johnson (found at this link http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine). The Bulls have refused to include Noah in the trade and would rather just trade Deng, Johnson, and a package of cash and draft picks.
Of all the teams listed above, Carmelo playing with the Chicago Bulls is the most intriguing possibility for NBA fans. After and impressive offseason haul of Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and Kurt Thomas, landing Carmelo would be icing on the cake. A big three of Derek Rose, Boozer, and Anthony would certainly challenge the star power of the Miami Thrice in the East and allow the Bulls to have their best shot at a championship since #23 turned in the Nikes for golf cleats.
The problem with the Carmelo to the Bulls deal is that the Bulls have balked at the idea of giving up starting center Joakim Noah for the perennial all-star and offensive prodigy Anthony. The deal the Nuggets would be asking for is Anthony for the trio of Noah, Luol Deng, and the project that is James Johnson (found at this link http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine). The Bulls have refused to include Noah in the trade and would rather just trade Deng, Johnson, and a package of cash and draft picks.
The fan in me wants Denver to just take this trade so we can have a team to battle the Heat in the playoffs with comparable star power (I think the Bulls would win.) However, they can't for two reasons. First, Luol Deng has 4 years and $51 million left on his contract. The Nuggets and owner Stan Kroenke have historically been unwilling to incur the luxury tax; furthermore, Deng just isn't enough of a talent to replace Carmelo. The Nuggets need Noah to make the Deng contract palatable while also helping them replace what they lost in Marcus Camby a few years back. The second reason the Nuggets can't take the Bulls trade is because they can get better offers from other teams. Check out the offers I made in the ESPN trade machine for the other teams listed above: Nets (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine a potential beast in Favors and two solid starters in Williams and Murphy), Knicks (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine the long-term potential of Randolph plus the financial flexibility once Curry comes of the books), Rockets (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine the Rockets would have to use up their trade exception from the Ariza trade), and the Clippers (http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine). The Nuggets have a responsibility to their fans and a business interest to either get back expiring contracts or the most talent in exchange for Anthony.
The other puzzling aspect of the trade negotiations between the Bulls and the Nuggets is the fact that the Bulls have made Joakim Noah untouchable. Many think that when you have a chance to get one of the top-5 offensive players in the game, you have to do it. But I agree with Chicago, including Noah in this possible trade would be the worst decision the Bulls could make and drastically hurt their team.
Although Noah doesn't have the most graceful and skilled game, he is the second-most important player on the Bulls' roster. Last year, Noah averaged 10.7 pts and 11 rebs (6th in the league) per game while also blocking 1.6 shots per game (8th in the league). He amassed these numbers while only playing 30 minutes per game. This y ear, Noah will come into the season healthy and the unquestioned starter for Tom Thibodeau. There is no reason to doubt that Noah's numbers and minutes will increase with Kurt Thomas and rookie Omar Asik as the only backup centers on the roster. Noah should play at least 35 minutes per game this year and he should come close to averaging 14 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game. Only 12 players averaged double-doubles in points and rebounds last year and only 5 players averag
ed 2 blocks or more. This makes Joakim a valuable commodity on any team, but he is more valuable on the Bulls. With Carlos Boozer as the starting power forward, you need a shot-blocking and defensive minded center to help cover up his defensive deficiencies. If they trade him away, they would be forced to play Kurt Thomas at the five; this would make them unable to guard as effectively in the low post. Offensively, Noah fits in great with the current team. You don't need to run plays for him to be happy. He will attack the glass and get easy put backs and layups. He also has begun to develop his mid range game as you can see from this shot chart from last year.
ed 2 blocks or more. This makes Joakim a valuable commodity on any team, but he is more valuable on the Bulls. With Carlos Boozer as the starting power forward, you need a shot-blocking and defensive minded center to help cover up his defensive deficiencies. If they trade him away, they would be forced to play Kurt Thomas at the five; this would make them unable to guard as effectively in the low post. Offensively, Noah fits in great with the current team. You don't need to run plays for him to be happy. He will attack the glass and get easy put backs and layups. He also has begun to develop his mid range game as you can see from this shot chart from last year.The other reason I agree with the Bulls' stance on keeping Noah is because I think Noah will become Tom Thibodeau's next Kevin Garnett defensively. Thibodeau is the defensive mastermind behind the Boston Celtics over the last 3 seasons, and helped Garnett win the Defensive Player of the Year Award in the 07-08 season. When comparing Noah last year with Garnett's award winning season, Noah fares well. In 07-08, Garnett averaged 9.2 rebs/game (7.3 defensive), 1.3 blocks/game, and 1.4 steals/game while playing 33 minutes each contest. In comparison Noah averaged 11 rebs/game (7.6 defensively), 1.6 blocks/game, and 0.5 steals per game in only 30 minutes per game in only his third season in the league. Rebounds per game can be affected by the pace of the game a team plays (i.e. there may have been more shots per game in the Bulls' games last season than the Celtics' games in the 07-08 season.) So lets look at the advanced statistics from Basketball-Reference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com/). The statistic is called Defensive Rebound Percentage (DRB%) which measures the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor and helps account for the differences between pace of play and shooting percentages. Noah grabbed 27.6% last year compared to Garnett's 25.1% in 07-08. Garnett was better offensively, and superior in other advanced statistics such as Defensive Win Share and Defensive rating, but my point is that Noah has the potential to thrive in Thibodeau's system just like Garnett did. The new system will help Noah maximize his stats and become a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate and First Team All-Defense next year.
Without Joakim Noah, the Bulls would no longer have the defensive presence to balance out their offensively minded team. In short, Noah is a great fit for the Bulls and replacing him with Kurt Thomas and Carmelo Anthony would not help the Bulls as much as keeping Noah. Luol Deng is nowhere near the player Carmelo is, but he is a mismatch against smaller small forwards and definitely fits as a third option. In the Eastern Conference, the Bulls are going to need Noah to be able guard the likes of Dwight Howard, Chris Bosh, Andrew Bogut, and Shaquille O'Neal in order for them to be a true contender for the title. Lord know Carlos Boozer can't guard them, and neither would Kurt Thomas.
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