Déjà vu all over again

The last time a trio of stars got together on one team was when Lebron took his talents to South Beach to play with D Wade and Chris Bosh. Expectations were high, to say the least. With three players that good, who the hell cared who played point guard and center? The Heat were going to surpass the 72-win record and win multiple championships from day one. Then the season began and everyone’s expectations came back down to earth as we realized that teams need to develop chemistry and learn to play with one another before seeing their win total increase. Jeff Van Gundy famously was quoted as saying the Heat would never lose two games in a row, never lose at home, and would win more than 72 games. After finishing the first month of the season with a Win/Loss record of 9/8 I think he had different thoughts.

You see it takes time for stars to learn how to play with one another and adapt their game to each other in the regular season. In the Olympics and All-Star games (the two types of games that reporters said Wade, James, and Bosh played in that showed they could play together), the players willfully (for the most part) adapt their games because they are either playing for something bigger than themselves (their Country) or are playing in an exhibition that has no bearing on their status (player don’t necessarily even want to play in all-star games; see Karl Malone). But the regular season is different; every missed or made shot, assist or turnover, and every minute played can cost players money. Players’ prime earning years don’t last long, and with the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement, who knows how they will be paid in the future. Also in the season, players worry more about winning and their legacy than they do in all-star games and international competition. Winning is important, but you can’t tell me Lebron, Carmelo, and Wade are losing sleep over the fact that they won a bronze medal in the 2004 winter games or that the East lost the 2009 all-star game by 27 points. They care, but really they really are just trying to play well and not get hurt. The fact that we thought just because Miami’s trio thrived in international play and all-star games meant that they would seamlessly learn how to thrive during the regular season was, in hindsight, foolish (at the time it felt justified!).

During that first month of the season, while the Heat were fighting to stay at .500, reporters, pundits and experts piled on the Heat letting us know how hard it is to build chemistry with new star players. They let us know of the growing pains, especially when the stars styles of play aren’t as complimentary as the Lakers and Celtics’ big stars have been. Some said the Heat had been overrated, but many, like ESPN’s John Hollinger, continued to urge fans to be patient; the Heat still showed signs of being a top team. Just like that, the Heat went on a 12-game winning streak and is currently sitting on the top of their division and second in the Eastern Conference at 21-9 through two months. The Heat-Haters have calmed down in their criticism of the team’s play and many see them as a contender, although most still think when healthy the Lakers and Celtics would beat them in a series. Nonetheless, everyone, myself included, had too high of expectations and also had too harsh of criticism for this team’s playing ability. We simply underestimated the importance and speed of developing chemistry and figuring out how to mesh stars together effectively.

Then, the Orlando Magic made two blockbuster trades that shook up their starting lineup and gave them their own version of a star-studded lineup. If Miami is a group of three superstars, Orlando has a group of 4 quasi-stars. Dwight Howard and Gilbert Arenas are or were at one point bona fide stars in this league. Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson are players who statistically look like stars and have routinely been considered for all-star games in the past. Orlando’s four lacks the star power that Boston, LA and Miami’s core groups have, but they are obviously one of the most talented rosters in the league, on paper. Arenas is a 3-time all-star, most improved player (02-03), 3-time all-NBA teamer, and finished top-five in scoring average for three seasons. Howard is the best big man in the game. Richardson and Nelson round out the foursome strongly.

When these trades went down, many thought that the Magic would do better than they had been by replacing Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, and Mickael Pietrus with Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu. Turkoglu especially was expected to rediscover the skills he lost when he left Orlando after their Finals appearance. So far, post-trade results have been lacking. The Magic are 0-2 losing to the Mavericks (a team that may be playing the best of any in the league right now) and indefensibly losing by 10 to the Atlanta Hawks (a team who the Magic dominated during the playoffs last season). Keep in mind all of the lessons we learned with Miami. Chemistry takes time to develop; it’s not just the top names on your team that matter; players who are used to playing with the ball take time to adjust their games. I was expecting the media and “experts” to show a little more patience this time. I was mistaken. Again we are hearing that the Magic are no longer a contender, and that by trading half of their starting lineup, they ruined chemistry and messed with a contender midseason. That may be true, but I doubt it.

First off, look at the players the Magic acquired from the Suns: Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson. Think of the difference in playing styles they are experiencing. In Phoenix, Richardson averaged 17.6 shots per 36 minutes and registered a Usage% of 25.3 (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.) In his two games in Orlando, Richardson is averaging 10.8 shots per 36 minutes and a Usage% of 14.6 (-6.8 shots per game and -10.7% in plays used per game). That is a big difference in playing style. Turkoglu’s difference is less pronounced probably because he played less in Phoenix, and when in the game, he was used very similarly as he is in Orlando. If we look at stats Per 36 minutes, Turkoglu is averaging 3.7 shots per game less and a 2.2% decrease in Usage% in Orlando. The other adjustment these two Suns players have to make is going from playing with a legendary point guard and no big men in Phoenix to playing with an average point guard and elite center that the offense revolves around in Orlando. They also have to adjust from playing in the 6th fastest offense in the league according to its Pace Rating to the 19th fastest offense in the league in Orlando.

Arenas is also making a pretty big adjustment. Through two games, Gilbert is playing 12.6 minutes less per game, averaging 2.5 shots less per 36 minutes, and a decrease in Usage% from 26.3 to 25.1 (less drastic due to the fact that he serves as the instant offense when in the game in Orlando and is expected to “use” plays when in the game as he is the point guard and focal point of the bench unit.) Arenas is also going from playing with Andray Blatche and Javale McGee as his starting frontcourt.

For these reasons, it is important to give the Magic some time to gel before writing them off. Especially because any team that has Dwight Howard in the middle will be a contender. Howard has a Usage% of 28.9% this season (9th in the league). This number will not change drastically even with the new toys the Magic acquired. The rest of the team will have to adjust to the fact that they will no longer be the focal point of the offense. It all starts with the best center in the game, the guards will get their shots, but they may inconsistently get them. They have to realize that, and work on becoming more efficient with less touches and shots. Efficiency is something the new acquisitions have struggled with so far as they are learning when to shoot and are most likely nervous about messing up what Stan Van Gundy and the Magic have established so far. Arenas is shooting 17.6%, Richardson is shooting 33.3%, and Turkoglu is shooting 20% so far for the Magic. I highly doubt these three will continue to struggle so mightily. So let’s remember what happened with the Heat (who I think had to adjust less than Orlando as Wade, Lebron, and Bosh play with much inferior supporting cast than the Magic and thus haven’t had to sacrifice as much), and give Orlando some time before we send them to the Lottery. In the end, they should be on the short list of title contenders this season and beyond. At the very least, they have more of a shot now than they did with Vince and Rashard limping up and down the court.

LeeBron?

I woke up this morning, went through my morning routine, and boarded the train to begin my hour-long exodus to Vanguard. The conductor, Rick, likes to give me a hard time and enjoys the fact that I’m going to a sports business program. He thinks I’m going to be the next Drew Rosenhaus. So when Rick came to check my ticket, he asked me, “So did you help make that Cliff Lee deal?” I gave the obligatory chuckle and nod and said “No Rick not yet, how much did the Yankees get him for? I didn’t see the news.” Rick retorted that the Yankees didn’t pull it off; the Phillies signed their prodigal son to a five-year/120 million -dollar contract. I was shocked, I wouldn’t say I’m a huge baseball fan, but I do keep tabs on the big stories, and I knew that the Cliff Lee sweepstakes were coming down to the Evil Empire (Yankees) and the small market dreamers with the Hall of Fame owner (Rangers). The media (ESPN) had painted Lee out to be somewhat of a money-hungry ace that wanted to be paid like other top pitchers (Sabbathia) and would go where the money was not necessarily the best team or chance for him to be happy. The Phillies weren’t even on the radar.

My initial reaction was that I need to bolt my doors and quit my job before playoff time and the inevitable parade down Broad Street and craziness that ensues. This team is no doubt going to win at least one more world series and has the best 4-man rotation I have seen in my 24 years on this earth. Two Cy Young winners, one WS MVP, and another perennial All-Star workhorse pitcher. Combine that an above average offensive team, and you will have a team that should be a lock to be playing in October. You also have the National League’s version of the Yankees and a new power player in a league that has been dominated by the Sox and Yanks free spending ways for years. Even as an anti-Philadelphia fan, I was still excited to see this team and I actually am looking forward to what is usually my least favorite time of the sports year, the marathon that is the MLB regular season. What records could be broken? Will Hamels and Oswalt ever lose a game going against other teams 3rd and 4th pitchers? How many Mets fans will meet their demise at their matchups at Citizens Bank Park?

I pulled up ESPN.com on my phone and read the Jayson Stark articles and tapped my ESPN Radio App on my iPhone to hear Mike and Mike’s reactions. My wheels started turning. I started to question what I was hearing, and drawing parallels to my favorite sport and player: the NBA and Lebron James. Didn’t Cliff Lee do what Lebron did when he decided to take his talents to South Beach? It’s eerily similar; minus the hour-long studio show and public humiliation of a fan base (also minus the millions of dollars raised for the Boys and Girls Club which we so often forget). Before we compare, let me just say this comparison excludes "The Decision," we can all agree that was narcissism and bravado at its worst. But excluding the show and the pep rally, the two are comparable. Let’s compare:

1) Cliff Lee chose to play for a dark horse team (Philly) instead of the options that ESPN decided were most likely and realistic (Yankees, Rangers, and Nationals). Lebron did the exact same thing choosing the relative dark horse Miami over the ESPN favorites Chicago, New York, Cleveland and even New Jersey.

2) Lee took less money to play for a team and a city that he felt comfortable with and that in his belief was the best chance for multiple championships. Lee’s deal reportedly can max out (depending on incentives and an optional 6th year) at anywhere from 120 million to 147.5 million dollars. The Yankees offered him a guaranteed 6-year deal with an optional 7th year that would max out at $148 million dollars. Lee could end up losing as much as 28 million dollars depending on if he meets the incentives for the 6th year of his Phillies contract. Lebron also took less money to play for a team and city he felt comfortable with and that he believed could get him the most rings (if you haven’t been watching the Heat’s renaissance lately, you are missing out on proof that they could win one sooner than we thought). Lebron’s contract ended being about 10 million dollars less than the maximum 6-year/$120 million max contract he was eligible for which when its all said and done may be more of a "sacrifice" than Lee is making if he meets all of the requirements for the optional 6th year.

3) Cliff Lee left a small market franchise, that he led to its first World Series in its 38-year history (since 1972) to go to a dream team of sorts that he was comfortable with and could consistently win him pennants. Lebron James left a small market franchise, that he led to its first NBA finals in its 37-year history for a team and city he could have fun and win with. The only difference between Lee and James is that James had an hour long TV show to commemorate his decision and raise money for charity, while Cliff Lee has done everything through the “proper” channels. He called the Rangers and his agent called the Yankees to reveal his decision. Is that really enough to justify the extreme difference in reactions? I don’t see any Cliff Lee jerseys getting set on fire, or national media calling out Lee for a lack of competitive fire. No one other than maybe Nolan Ryan will say “If it was me, I would never want to play with the guys I faced off against and who traded me last season instead of giving me an extension right away.” There won’t be legends and media pining for the old days where athletes hated other teams and signing on a team with an established star meant admitting that you were inferior and not good enough to do it yourself. Lee will be just like Lebron on the Heat, the second banana. Wade and Halladay are the resident leaders of the respective teams. But for some reason Lee is applauded for his decision and praised as a true competitor. The media is focusing on how good this team will be and not on how Lee let down the Rangers and their fans coming off a World Series run. At least Lebron left after they got dominated in the Eastern Conference finals, the Rangers made the World Series!

Maybe it’s because Lee isn't the spectacle that Lebron is; maybe it’s because its baseball not basketball and the individual is never bigger than the team; maybe it’s because he is returning to a team he already played for and was loved on; or, I hate to say it, maybe it’s like Lebron said, about race (see CNN interview and article here http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/LeBron-James-says-race-was-a-factor-in-backlash-?urn=nba-273678.) I don’t know why, but everyone who is applauding Lee as an unselfish, winner, who is sacrificing money to be happy and win multiple championships needs to remember the criticism and scorn they had when Lebron decided to team up with his version of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. People have to choose one train of thought or another; I for one applaud both of them, and think that this is a great sign for sports. Deep down though, I kind of want somebody like Steve Carlson, or Greg Maddux to come out and question Lee for not being an “alpha dog” or being “the Scottie Pippen to Roy Halladay’s Michael Jordan” just for the pure hilarity of the comments. And maybe the pundits should be more critical as Lee is signing back with a team who didn't think he was worth signing last year and traded to "replenish the farm system." Shouldn't a true competitor want to stick it to this team every chance he can get? Wouldn't that show the competitive fire we demand from our athletes more than simply signing back with them to win a couple more championships?

Both of these players, Lebron and Cliff, simply made smart and selfish decisions, which in the sports world, where athlete’s peak earning years last only until their mid-thirties, are the only type we should expect athletes to make.